| 赵寒,李柏松,夏宇,周海龙,李廷荣,曾艺,朱小玲,周于祥,李勤.一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集疫情传播链的调查分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(12):2015-2019 |
| 一起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集疫情传播链的调查分析 |
| Investigation of transmission chain of a cluster COVID-19 cases |
| 收稿日期:2020-02-27 出版日期:2020-12-25 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200227-00198 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 传播链 潜伏期 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 Transmissionchain Incubation period |
| 基金项目:重庆市新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情应急科技攻关专项（cstc2020jscx-fyzx0176） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）聚集疫情的传播特点，评价新型冠状病毒在潜伏期的传染性。方法 以一起发生在重庆市的COVID-19聚集疫情为研究对象，采用回顾性调查的方法，并用统一的调查表，以现场调查和电话调查相结合的方式对129名密切接触者进行线索追踪和个案调查。采用传播链示意图分析传播关系，采用接触史示意图分析传染性。结果 本起COVID-19聚集疫情由同学聚会分别引起了3起家庭（亲戚）和1起同事的聚集。R0=3.8，潜伏期接触的感染率为17.57%，平均发病前3 d有传染性，不同的接触方式感染率差异有统计学意义（χ2=15.10，P<0.01），单次接触时间不同感染率差异有统计学意义（χ2=25.08，P<0.01）。结论 COVID-19潜伏期存在较强的传染性，越密闭狭小的空间传播风险越高，单次接触时间越长传播风险越高，存在间接接触传播方式。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze of the transmission characteristics of a cluster of COVID-19 cases in Chongqing and evaluate the infectivity of COVID-19 in the incubation period. Methods A retrospective survey was conducted by using unified questionnaire through field and telephone interviews among 129 close contacts of COVID-19 cases. The relationship of transmission was indicated by transmission chain, and the infectivity was analyzed by the contact history. Results This cluster of COVID-19 cases occurred after a classmate party involving members in three families and work fellows in a factory (R0=3.8). The infection rate during the incubation period was 17.57%. On average, it was infectious three days before onset. There was significant difference in infection rate among different contact modes (χ2=15.10, P<0.01),There was significant difference in infection rate among single exposureswith different time length (χ2=25.08, P<0.01). Conclusions COVID-19 is highly infectious in the incubation period. The more confined the space is, the higher the risk is,and the longer the single exposure is, the higher the risk of transmission is. Indirect contact transmission still exists |
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