文章摘要
潘兴强,陈奕,王爱红,王建美,叶莉霞,谷少华,方挺,许国章.宁波市15起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情的传播力研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,,():
宁波市15起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情的传播力研究
Study on transmission dynamic of 15 clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 cases in Ningbo
收稿日期:2020-03-30  出版日期:2020-05-12
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200330-00466
中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎;代际间隔时间;基本再生数;聚集性疫情
英文关键词: COVID-19;Generation time;Basic regeneration number;Cluster
基金项目:宁波市科技重大专项(2020C50001);宁波市医疗卫生品牌学科(PPXK2018-10);浙江省医学重点学科“现场流行病学”(07-013)
作者单位E-mail
潘兴强 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
陈奕 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
王爱红 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
王建美 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
叶莉霞 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
谷少华 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
方挺 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010  
许国章 宁波市疾病预防控制中心 315010 xugz@nbcdc.org.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 描述新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)聚集性疫情病例的基本特征。方法 收集15起COVID-19聚集性疫情病例的基本信息,采用伽马分布拟合病例代际间隔时间(Tg),使用基于SEIR模型计算基本再生数(R0)。结果 15起聚集性疫情中共有确诊病例52例、涉及5例核酸阳性无症状感染者。病例发病时间主要集中在1月23日至2月4日,以女性为主,潜伏期为(6.11±3.38)d。Tg为(6.93±3.70) d,在<60岁、≥ 60岁组及男、女性之间,Tg差异无统计学意义(P=0.551)。按照本研究估算的Tg计算,宁波市新冠肺炎感染的R0为3.06 (95%CI:2.64~3.51);按照文献报告的病例Tg为7.5 d计算,R0为 3.32(95%CI:2.51~9.38)。结论 COVID-19聚集性疫情病例的Tg在不同年龄、性别间差异不大,COVID-19早期致病和传播力较高。
英文摘要:
      Objective To describe the basic characteristics of clusters of coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, and evaluate the generation time (Tg) and basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19. Methods The basic information and onset times of the clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo were investigated, the inter-generational interval of the cases were fitted by using gamma distribution, and the R0 was calculated based on the SEIR model. Results In the 15 clusters of COVID-19 cases, a total of 52 confirmed cases, 5 cases of nucleic acid- positive asymptomatic cases. The cases occurred from January 23 to February 4, the cases were mainly women. The incubation period was (6.11±3.38) days, and the median was 5 days. The Tg was (6.93±3.70) days. There were no significant differences in Tg between age group <60 years and age group 60 years and above, and between men and women (P=0.551). According to the Tg calculated in this paper, the R0 of COVID-19 in Ningbo was 3.06 (95%CI:2.64-3.51); according to the reported case transmission interval of 7.5 days in the literature, the R0 was 3.32 (95%CI:2.51-9.38). Conclusion There is no age and gender specific differences in the Tg of clusters of COVID-19 cases in Ningbo, and COVID-19 has high infectivity and spreading power in early phase.
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