文章摘要
沈思鹏,魏永越,赵杨,姜玥,官锦兴,陈峰.全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国的输入风险评估[J].中华流行病学杂志,,():
全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国的输入风险评估
Risk assessment of global COVID-19 imported cases into China
收稿日期:2020-04-15  出版日期:2020-05-25
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200415-00577
中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎;境外输入;世界流行趋势;风险预测
英文关键词: COVID-19;Import cases;Worldwide epidemic trends;Risk prediction
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(82041024)
作者单位E-mail
沈思鹏 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166  
魏永越 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166  
赵杨 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166  
姜玥 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166  
官锦兴 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166  
陈峰 南京医科大学公共卫生学院全球健康中心 211166 fengchen@njmu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 评估全球新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情对我国的输入风险。方法 基于收集的疫情数据(各国家每日累计确诊病例数、境外输入病例累计确诊病例数)、人口学数据(各国人口密度、人口数)、旅客潜在来源群体信息(华侨华人常住人口数、在外中国留学生数、海外务工人员数、来华留学生数、航班旅客数估计)和全球健康安全指数(GHS)等信息,进行近期(2月1日-4月25日)和未来(4月26日-)风险分析及预测,构建输入风险得分。结果 各国境外输入病例数、累计确诊数、罹患率、华侨华人数、境外留学生数、来华留学生数、航班乘客数和GHS变量间有较强的正相关性。近期风险分析中,俄罗斯输入病例明显较高,英国、美国、法国、西班牙次之。在未来风险预测中,通过各国罹患率指数和平均每日入境乘客数估计值两项信息,评估美国、新加坡等44个国家为未来潜在高风险国家。结论 通过COVID-19疫情各国家输入风险评估,可以识别近期及未来的高风险区域,为加强疫情防控,为最终战胜疫情提高帮助。
英文摘要:
      Objective To assess the risk of COVID-19 foreign imports cases to China. Methods We collected epidemic data (cumulative daily confirmed cases in each country, cumulative confirmed imported cases), demographic data (population density, population) and information on potential source groups of tourists (the daily estimated number of overseas Chinese, overseas Chinese students, overseas workers, foreign students coming to China and flight passengers) and the global health security index (GHS) to assess and predict risk of imported cases for recent (February 1st to April 25th) and future (after April 26th). Results Strong positive correlation was found among variables including the number of imported cases, cumulative confirmed cases, attack rate, number of overseas Chinese, number of overseas Chinese students, number of foreign students coming to China, number of flight passengers and GHS. In the recent risk analysis, imported cases of Russian were the highest, followed by United Kingdom, United States, France and Spain. In the future risk prediction, 44 countries including United States and Singapore are evaluated as potential high-risk countries in the future through the attack rate index of each country and the estimated average number of daily passengers. Conclusion The risk assessment of COVID-19 imported cases can be used to identify high-risk areas in recent and future, and might be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and ultimately overcome the epidemic.
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