| 潘小琴.高血压年龄患病专率的数学模型[J].中华流行病学杂志,1985,6(2):103-107 |
| 高血压年龄患病专率的数学模型 |
| A Mathematical Model of the Age-specific Prevalence of Hypertension |
| 收稿日期: 出版日期:2021-05-21 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 从1979年我国全国高血压抽样普查结果看来,不同地区不同性别人群在15~50岁年龄范围内,高血压患病率普遍呈随年龄增长的类似趋势。本文试用指数曲线ŷ=debx和ŷ=HBx来模拟各地的这个趋势。所得的数学模型的拟合度是高的。根据以上模型,可以推算出高血压患病率随年龄而增的速率dŷ/dx.各个人群的数学模型中特有的d、b二值(或H、B二值)及推导所得的dŷ/dx,可能是测量和比较不同条件下的人群发病趋势和研究环境因子或人群特征与疾病关系的有价值的指标. |
| 英文摘要: |
According to the results of a nationwide sampling survey in china about the prevalence of hypertension in 1979, we found that within the age range from 15-50, the prevalence of hypertension of various populations, generally, showed a similar tendency of increasing with age.This paper tries to express these changing trends by means of fitting the exponential curve y=debx or y=HBx. The mathematical model we obtained exhibits a high goodness of fit.
Basing on this model, we can calculate dŷ/dx which is the theoretical increasing rate of prevalence of hypertension. Using both dŷ/dx and the characteristic values of d, b or (H,B) in the equation. we suppose that it may be valuable as an index to measure and compare the incidence trends of populations under different conditions. It might help us to find out the relationships between the environmental factors or characteristics of a population and the diseage. |
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