文章摘要
王启俊,祝伟星,袁光亮.2001年北京地区癌症死亡预测[J].中华流行病学杂志,1995,16(4):195-198
2001年北京地区癌症死亡预测
Trend and Prediction of Cancer Mortality in Beijing, China, During 1980-2001
收稿日期:1994-09-25  出版日期:2021-05-22
DOI:
中文关键词: 肿瘤  死亡率
英文关键词: Cancer  Mortality
基金项目:
作者单位
王启俊 北京市肿瘤防治研究所 100034 
祝伟星 北京市肿瘤防治研究所 100034 
袁光亮 北京市肿瘤防治研究所 100034 
摘要点击次数: 1038
全文下载次数: 267
中文摘要:
      利用长期进行的恶性肿瘤登记报告资料,对北京地区1980~1991年恶性肿瘤死亡率变化进行了动态分析,找出时间序列变化的规律,利用灰色系统理论模型对北京地区2001年癌症流行趋势做出预测,为癌症预防与控制策略、措施的研究提供科学依据。
英文摘要:
      Mortality data gathered throngh registration system were analyzed systematically to predict the trend of cancer mortality. A grey-system model was established to forecast the epidemic trend for cancer mortality of Beijing in 2001. In result, the mortality of cancer in Beijing will increase annually upto 2001. The composition of various malignant turner will charge notably. Rapid increase will occure in lung cancer. Liver cancer and colon-rectal cancer will aslo increase. Cancers of esophagus and cervix uteri will steadly decline. Stomach cancer begin to decrease. These information on the change of cancer mortality will provide scientific reference for the study of cancer prevention and control in Beijing.
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