中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析

刘剑君; 么鸿雁; 姜世闻; 杜昕

文章摘要

刘剑君,么鸿雁,姜世闻,杜昕.中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2004,25(8):647-649

中国结核病患者的发现与现代结核病控制策略扩展关系的预测分析

Analysis on the relationship between tuberculosis case detection and short-course coverage of directly observed treatment in China

收稿日期:2004-06-16 出版日期:2014-09-18

DOI：

中文关键词: 结核肺病例发现现代结核病控制策略预测

英文关键词: Tuberculosis pulmonary Case detection rate Directly observed treatment shortcourse Predict

基金项目:黑龙江省自然科学基金(D200623)

作者	单位
刘剑君	中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心, 北京,100050
么鸿雁	中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心, 北京,100050
姜世闻	中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心, 北京,100050
杜昕	中国疾病预防控制中心结核病预防控制中心, 北京,100050

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中文摘要:

目的分析影响发现结核病患者的因素,预测2005年中国结核病患者发现的进展情况.方法描述1996～2003年新涂阳患者登记率和发现率的变化情况;分析新涂阳患者登记率与现代结核病控制策略(DOTS策略)覆盖率之间的相关关系,并建立回归方程,预测2004年和2005年的登记率.结果 1996～1998年全国新涂阳患者的登记率和发现率均呈上升趋势,随后4年处于平稳期,2003年则出现了较大幅度的上升,超过以往各年的最高登记率和发现率;1996～2003年期间新涂阳患者登记率与DOTS覆盖率的变化趋势呈正的直线相关关系(r=0.849,P=0.008),具有较高程度的关联.回归方程为:y=b₀+b₁X=1.754+0.217X,总体回归系数的95%CJ为0.082～0.352,F=15.43,P=0.008;其决定系数R²=0.72.当2005年DOTS策略覆盖率达到100%时,全国新涂阳患者的登记率为23.5/10万,其95%展能够促进结核病患者的发现,但更为重要的是DOTS策略的实施质量对于结核病患者的发现起着至关重要的作用.

英文摘要:

Objective To analyze factors influencing tuberculosis(TB) case detection so as to predict the trend of case detection in the ye-ar of 2005.Methods Data was collected and analyzed regarding the correlation between the registration rate of newly identified smear-positive TB case and the directly observed treatment short-course(DOTS)coverage from 1996 to 2003.Based on the orrelation analys-is, regression equation was built to predict the case registration rate in 2005.Results Both case registration rate and case de-tection rate showed an increasing trend from 1996 to l998 and kept a platform between 1999 and 2002,followed by a zooming change in 2003 to reach a 45% case detection rate while the smear-positive TB case registration rate and DOTS coverage showed highly correlative (r=0.849,P=0 008).The regression equation was:y = b₀+b₁X=1.754+0.217X(95% CI of β:0.082-0.352),F=15.43,P=0.008;R²=0.72.If the DOTS coverage rate reaches 100% in 2005,the national new smear positive re-gistration rate will have become 23.5/ 100 000( 95% CI:10.0-37.0) and the national new smear-positive case detection rate will have reached 51.8 % (95% CI:22.0-81.5). Conclusion Our research finding revealed that not only the expansion of D-OTS could promote the rate of TB case detection but the quality of DOTS also played an important role in the TB control program. In or-der to reach the target of 70% case detection rate in 2005,programs as accelerating the DOTS expansion to increase the DOTS coverage a-nd improving the quality of DOTS as well as other control measures need to be strengthened.

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