| 李源培,何忠,何明祯,姜杰,李君祥,周艺彪,张志杰,姜庆五.湖沼地区水位变化对钉螺消长影响的广义相加模型研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2010,31(10):1148-1154 |
| 湖沼地区水位变化对钉螺消长影响的广义相加模型研究 |
| Impact of the changing water level on the vaHance of Oncomelania hupensis populations in Lake Area with general additive model |
| 收稿日期:2010-04-08 出版日期:2014-09-18 |
| DOI：10.3760/ema.j.issn.0254-6450.2010.10.017 |
| 中文关键词: 钉螺 水位 广义相加模型 湖沼地区 |
| 英文关键词: Snails Water level General additive model Lake area |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(30590374)；国家科技重大专项(2008ZXl0004-011)；国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2006AA022402)；上海市霞点学科建设项目(B118) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 李源培 | 200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 | jiangqw@fudan.edu.cn | | 何忠 | 湖南省岳阳市君山Ⅸ血防站 | | | 何明祯 | 200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 | | | 姜杰 | 湖南省岳阳市君山Ⅸ血防站 | | | 李君祥 | 湖南省岳阳市君山Ⅸ血防站 | | | 周艺彪 | 200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 | | | 张志杰 | 200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 | | | 姜庆五 | 200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室, 教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室 | |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探索湖沼地区水位变化对钉螺消长的影响及其规律。方法 选择湖南省岳 阳市长rI：村典型钉螺孳生地为现场，收集2001--2009年间的水位资料和螺情资料，包括平均水 位、最高水位和最低水位及活螺密度、阳性螺密度、有螺框出现率和阳性螺框出现率等。描述水位 指标和螺情指标的时间分布情况，用』'.义相加模型(GAM)拟合分析水位变化与钉螺消长之间的 关系。结果 2001--2009年度中当年的平均水位和现场水淹天数对活螺密度的影响均有统计学 意义(P<0.01)，表现为二次曲线关系，活螺密度在平均水位为25。0m，水淹天数为120 d时最低。 当年的平均水位和上一年的现场水淹天数对阳性螺密度和阳性螺框出现率的影响均有统计学意 义(P<0.05)，表现为二次曲线或i次及更复杂分段样曲线关系；对有螺框出现率的影响均有统计 学意义(尸值接近0.05)。表现为二次曲线关系。阳性螺密度和阳性螺框出现率在平均水位为25.0 m， 上一年水淹天数为110 d时最低；而有螺框出现率在平均水位为25.0 m，上一年水淹天数为160 d 时最低。结论 水位变化对钉螺消长的影响主要表现为非线性的光滑函数关系。水淹天数对有 螺框出现率、阳性螺密度和阳性螺框出现率的影响存在滞后效应。用GAM拟合水位变化对钉螺 消长的影响可能更贴近实际而便于解释，容易发现两者之间的潜在关系和规律。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the impact and regularity of snail population after changing of water level and to develop effective control and prediction programs.Methotis A typical snail habitat closed to Changjiang county in Yueyang city，Hunan province was selected as the survey field. Data on water level and the changing trend of snail population during 2001-2009 including the average water level.maximum and minimum water 1evels。snail and infected snail densities， proportion of sampling frames with Iiving and infected snails etc.were collected.The distribution of water Ievel and snail indexes were described and a general additive model(GAM)for the relationships between these indexes were also fitted.Results Impacts of the average water level and the watered-out days in current year in the surveyed field on the snail density were statistically significant(PConclusion The water level and the field watered-out days affected the development of snail population directly.The changing water level had an impact on snail population change.which mainly presented as nonlinear smooth function relation.Impact of the field watered out days on the infected snail density and the proportion of sampling flames with living snails and infected snails showed a hysteresis effbct.The snail density was predicted to be retaining a high level when the water level was 24.0 m and the field watered.out days was 3 months.It had obvious advantages to fit the relationship of the changing water level and the snailindexes with a GAM which could get closer to the reality as weil as easier to find and explain the potential associations and regulations. |
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