文章摘要
肖洪,田怀玉,赵暕,张锡兴,朱佩娟,刘如春,陈田木.长沙市2009年甲型H1N1流感时空过程分析及影响因素研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2011,32(6):587-592
长沙市2009年甲型H1N1流感时空过程分析及影响因素研究
Spatio-temporal process and the influencing factors on influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha
收稿日期:2010-11-10  出版日期:2014-09-10
DOI:
中文关键词: 甲型H1N1流感;空间数据分析;影响因素
英文关键词: Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic;Spatial data analysis;Influencing factors
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40971038);湖南师范大学校级重点学科地图学与地理信息系统;湖南省科技计划项目(2010SK3007);湖南省重点学科建设项目(2008001)
作者单位E-mail
肖洪 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙 410081 xiaohong.hnnu@gmail.com 
田怀玉 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙 410081  
赵暕 北京大学医学部  
张锡兴 长沙市疾病预防控制中心  
朱佩娟 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙 410081  
刘如春 长沙市疾病预防控制中心  
陈田木 长沙市疾病预防控制中心  
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析2009年长沙市甲型H1N1流感大流行期间时空传播过程及扩散过程中的影响因素.方法 以长沙市甲型H1N1流感疫情数据,结合长沙市地理信息系统(GIS),利用热点分析、时空聚类分析、空间过程分析和Spearman相关性分析等数据分析方法,对疫情进行深入分析.结果 疫情热点区域多出现在市辖区与县城等经济较发达的地区,疫情时空一级聚类区位于浏阳市中部(RR=22.70,P<0.01),二级聚类区位于市辖区岳麓区(RR=6.49,P<0.01)、雨花区(RR=81.63,P<0.01)、长沙县中部星沙镇周边(RR=2.90,P<0.01)、雨敞坪镇(RR=19.31,P<0.01)、城郊乡(RR=73.14,P<0.01)、宁乡县西部龙田镇周边(RR=14.43,P<0.01)以及望城县中部乌山镇周边(RR=13.84,P<0.01),随着时间推移在空间上呈现向东(经济发达地区)扩散的趋势;人口数量、学生数、空间相邻性和经济活动对疫情传播过程产生重要影响;甲型H1N1流感起始期人口密度是主要影响因素(r=0.477,P<0.05),疫情初期与快速发展期学生数量是重要的指标(r=0.831,P<0.01;r=0.518,P<0.01),在疫情顶峰期经济活动对疫情扩散起主要作用(r=-0.676,P<0.01).结论 在流感不同的发展阶段,疫情的高危人群与高发区域均有明显的变化,因此应根据疫情的不同阶段对防控措施进行调整.
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the spatio-temporal process on 2009 influenza A (HlNl) pandemic in Changsha and the influencing factors during the diffusion process. Methods Data were from the following 5 sources, influenza A (HlNl) pandemic gathered in 2009, Geographic Information System (GIS) of Changsha, the broad range of theorems and techniques of hot spot analysis, spatio-temporal process analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. Results Hot spot areas appeared to be more in the economically developed areas, such as cities and townships. The cluster of spatial-temporal distribution of influenza A (HlNl) pandemic was most likely appearing in Liuyang city (RR=22.70,P<0.01). The secondary cluster would include districts as Yuelu (RR=6A9,P< 0.01), Yuhua (RR=81.63, P<0.01). Xingsha township appeared as the center in the Changsha county (RR=2.90, P<0.01) while townships as Yutangping (RR=19.31, P<0.01), Chengjiao (RR=73.14,P<0.01) and Longtian appeared as the center in the west of Ningxiang county (RR= 14.43,P<0.01) and Wushan as the center in the Wangcheng county (RR= 13.84,P<0.01). As time went on, the epidemic moved towards the eastern and more developed regions. Regarding factor analysis, population, the amount of students, geographic relationship and business activities etc. appeared to be the key elements influencing the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, population density served as the main factor (r=0.477, P<0.05) but during the initial and fast growing stages, it was replaced by the size of students to serve as the important indicator (r=0.831, P<0.01; r=0.518, P<0.01). However, during the peak of the epidemics, the business activities played an important role (r=-0.676, P<0.01). Conclusion Groups under high risk and districts with high incidence rates were shifting, along with the temporal process of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, suggesting that the protection measures need to be adjusted, according to the significance of influencing factors at different stages.
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