文章摘要
王迅,贾尧,谢云峥,励修楣,刘晓颖,伍晓菲.联合运用数学模型对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒残留风险评估的分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2011,32(9):936-939
联合运用数学模型对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒残留风险评估的分析
Joint application of mathematic models in assessing the residual risk of hepatitis C virus transmitted through blood transfusion
收稿日期:2011-05-08  出版日期:2014-09-11
DOI:
中文关键词: 丙型肝炎病毒;输血传染病;残留风险;数学模型
英文关键词: Hepatitis C virus;Transfusion-transmitted disease;Residual risk;Mathematic models
基金项目:上海市自然科学基金(10ZR1428400)
作者单位E-mail
王迅 上海市血液中心 200051 wangxun_11@botmail.com 
贾尧 上海市血液中心 200051  
谢云峥 上海市血液中心 200051  
励修楣 上海市血液中心 200051  
刘晓颖 上海市血液中心 200051  
伍晓菲 上海市血液中心 200051  
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中文摘要:
      构建数学模型对输血残留风险评估是当前实用且有效的方法。根据重复献血者经常参加献血的特点,可运用“重复献血者献血间隔期转阳”模型计算重复献血者的发病率;根据疾病在人群中的流行特点,可运用“现患率随年龄增加”模型计算初次献血者的发病率;根据血液筛查检测窗口期的特点,可运用“残留风险与发病率和窗口期长度相关”模型计算残留风险。本研究联合运用上述3种数学模型,对输血传播丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)的残留风险进行探讨,并以上海地区献血者资料为实例,在对所有筛查不合格样本进行确认的情况下,评估得出上海地区2007年1月1日至2008年12月31日期间输血传播HCV的残留风险为1∶101 000。利用数学模型的方法评估输血传播HCV的残留风险具有参考价值,上海地区输血传播HCV的残留风险处于较安全的水平。
英文摘要:
      The practicable and effective methods for residual risk assessment on transfusion-transmitted disease was to establish the mathematic models. Based on the characteristics of the repeat donors which donated their blood on a regular base, a model of sero-conversion during the interval of donations was established to assess the incidence of the repeat donors. Based on the characteristics of the prevalence in the population, a model of ‘prevalence increased with the age of the donor' was established to assess the incidence of those first-time donors. And based on the impact of the windows period through blood screening program, a model of residual risk associated with the incidence and the length of the windows period was established to assess the residual risk of blood transfusion. In this paper, above said 3 kinds of mathematic models were jointly applied to assess the residual risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) which was transmitted through blood transfusion in Shanghai,based on data from the routine blood collection and screening program. All the anti-HCV unqualified blood donations were confirmed before assessment. Results showed that the residual risk of HCV transmitted through blood transfusion during Jan. 1st,2007 to Dec. 31st,2008 in Shanghai was 1∶101 000. Data showed that the results of residual risk assessment with mathematic models was valuable. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV in Shanghai was at a safe level, according to the results in this paper.
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