文章摘要
郭貔,李克.香港1997-2008年甲型流感季节性波动与气候因素的相关性分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2011,32(10):1005-1008
香港1997-2008年甲型流感季节性波动与气候因素的相关性分析
A retrospective analysis on the association between seasonality of influenza A and climate factors in human from 1997 to 2008,in Hong Kong
收稿日期:2011-03-17  出版日期:2014-09-11
DOI:10.3760/cma.j .issn.0254-6450.2011. 10.012
中文关键词: 流行性感冒;气候因素;时间序列;广义相加模型
英文关键词: Influenza;Climate factors;Time series;Generalized additive model
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
郭貔 汕头大学医学院预防医学教研室 515041  
李克 汕头大学医学院预防医学教研室 515041 kli@stu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 研究香港地区甲型流感的人群季节性波动与气候条件的相关性。方法 收集1997-2008年香港地区甲型流感病毒监测资料和相同时期的气候因素,采用广义相加模型 (GAM),控制混杂因素,探索气候因素对甲型流感的人群季节性流行的潜在影响,同时对这种影响效应进行定量估计。结果 甲型流感的人群季节性波动与气候的相关关系比较复杂,所拟合的非线性效应经x2检验具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。4种气候因素的影响效应表现为从高到低、再逐渐地回升中等的趋势,流感发生率最低时对应的气候因素值域分别是平均气温(17.95 ~ 24.10)℃、相对湿度(71.5~78.5)%、平均风速(18.3~24.0)km/h与绝对湿度(4.37~4.80) mb。 结论甲型流感的人群季节性波动与平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速和绝对湿度之间存在复杂的相关性。
英文摘要:
      To investigate the association between seasonal dynamics of influenza A and climate factors in Hong Kong. Methods Data regarding monthly report on influenza A and climate during the period of 1997-2008 were collected. Generalized additive models were established to study the effects of climate factors on the seasonality of influenza A in human while confounders controlled and nonlinear effect determined. Results Results showed that the association between climate factors and the seasonality of influenza A was complicated. The nonlinear effects of climate factors on the epidemics of influenza A were significant, using x2 test (P<0.05). The effect of the factors including mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and absolute humidity on the seasonality of influenza A were similar, maximal at low scale, minimal at mid-rang scale and moderate at high one. The minamal effect intervals of the above factors were (17.95-24.10) ℃, (71.5-78.5 )%, (18.3-24.0) km/h and (4.37-4.80)mb respectively. Conclusion Data from this study suggested that the effect of climate factors on the seasonal dynamics of influenza A in human was complicated.
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