文章摘要
肖革新,胡跃华,马家奇,都元涛,王晓风,张英杰,于石成.中国2008-2011年手足口病空间聚集性及变化趋势研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2012,33(8):808-812
中国2008-2011年手足口病空间聚集性及变化趋势研究
SpafiaI clustering and changing trend of hand-foot—mouth disease during 2008—201l in China
收稿日期:2012-05-18  出版日期:2014-09-03
DOI:
中文关键词: 手足口病  探索性空间数据分析方法  全局自相关  局部自相关  聚集区域
英文关键词: Hand-foot-mouth disease  Exploratory spatial data analysis  Global autocorrelation  Local autocorrelation  Clustering area
基金项目:国家科技重大专项(2009ZXl0004-201)
作者单位E-mail
肖革新 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
胡跃华 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
马家奇 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
都元涛 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
王晓风 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
张英杰 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
于石成 中山大学公共卫生学院 shicheng_yu@hotmail.Tom 
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中文摘要:
      目的 探索中国手足口病发病的空间聚集性、聚集区域及其变化。方法 采用探索性空间数据分析方法对2008-2011年中国手足口病监测数据分省级和区县级层面进行空间统计分析。结果 通过全局自相关发现,2008-2011年以及4年总和的Moran's Ⅰ系数分别为0.3336、0.6074、0.3372、0.4620、0.4367,经蒙特卡罗检验,P值均<0.05(分别为0.002、0.001、0.004、0.001、0.001),差异有统计学意义。经过局部自相关分析,2008年得到北京、天津、上海3个“热点”区域;2009年得到北京、天津、河北、山西、上海、江苏、山东7个“热点”区域;2010年得到北京、天津、广东和广西4个“热点”区域;2011年得到福建、江西、湖南、广东和广西5个“热点”区域。在区县级水平上,发现390个“热点”区县。结论 2008-2011年中国手足口病整体呈现中度以上的聚集性,发病聚集区域的变化表现为从北到南转移的趋势,其原因需进一步研究。
英文摘要:
      Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the spatial clustering,specific clustering areas,as well as changing trend of clustering areas of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD).Methods Exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) was used to conduct spatial statistical analyses for the HFMD using 2008-2011 data at both provincial and county/district levels.Results The Global Moran's I coefficients appeared to be 0.3336,0.6074,0.3372,0.4620 and 0.4367 for 2008-2011and for the combined 4 years,respectively.The corresponding P-values were 0.002,0.001,0.004,0.001 and 0.001 respectively,when using the Monte Carlo tests with all the P-values less than 0.05.Moran's Ⅰ coefficients ranged between 0.3 and 0.7,showing the appearance of moderate or higher clustering nature.Based on the Results from nationwide analyses on clustering areas at the county/district levels between 2008 and 2011(Moran's I=0.5198,P=0.001),it appeared a moderate clustering nature.When local autocorrelation analysis was applied at the provincial level,3 hot spot areas in Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai cities in 2008;7 hot spot areas in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Shanxi,Shanghai,Jiangsu and Shandong in 2009; four hot spot areas:Beijing,Tianjin,Guangdong and Guangxi; five hot spot areas:Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guangdong and Guangxi in 2011,were discovered.390 hot-spot counties/districts were found through local autocorrelation analyses using the three-year data of 2008 to 2010.Conclusion Spatial clustering nature of HFMD incidence between 2008 and 2011 in China appeared to be moderate or high,with the clustered areas a north to south shifting trend.However,further investigation was in need to address this changing trend.
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