文章摘要
徐建国.从SARS到人感染H7N9禽流感——行为生态型传染病[J].中华流行病学杂志,2013,34(5):417-418
从SARS到人感染H7N9禽流感——行为生态型传染病
Behavioral and ecological infectious diseases: from SARS to H7N9 avian influenza outbreak in China
收稿日期:2013-04-15  出版日期:2014-09-17
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.02.001
中文关键词: 禽流感;H7N9亚型;行为生态型传染病
英文关键词: H7N9 avian influenza; Behavioral and ecological infectious diseases
基金项目:卫生行业科研专项项目(201202021);新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目(200933120);国家自然科学基金(30960348)
作者单位E-mail
徐建国 国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所传染病预防控制国家重点实验室, 北京 102206 xujianguo@icdc.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 了解准噶尔盆地鼠疫自然疫源地动物鼠疫流行的空间和时间分布特征。方法 对2005--2012年准噶尔盆地鼠疫自然疫源地大沙鼠血清鼠疫抗体检测数据,采用统计学方法并结合地理地貌特征,分析鼠疫抗体阳性率的空间分布及其时间变化。结果 共获得准噶尔盆地13个行政区域大沙鼠血清鼠疫抗体检测数据4 825份。大沙鼠动物鼠疫主要流行于准噶尔盆地中东部的古尔班通古特沙漠荒漠(阳性率为8.39%)和准噶尔盆地西部低山平原粘土荒漠(阳性率为1.56%)2个地区。准噶尔盆地西部地区鼠疫抗体阳性率由2005年的7.59%下降至2008年的0.61%,其后一直处于静息状态。东部古尔班通古特沙漠荒漠地区的东、中、西3个区段鼠疫抗体阳性率变化有所不同,西段于2006年和2010年间出现2次流行高峰,其间隔期为4年,2010年高峰期鼠疫抗体阳性率则达到45.65%,为3个地理区段最高值;中段于2006、2009和2011年出现3次高峰,间隔期为2.5年,鼠疫抗体平均阳性率为8.92%,流行强度低于东、西段;东段是大沙鼠鼠疫最活跃的地区,各年度均可检出鼠疫抗体阳性血清,其变化呈现2006、2009和2012年3个高峰期,间隔期为3年。大沙鼠鼠疫抗体检测阳性率秋季高于春季,说明大沙鼠鼠疫流行为春季至秋季的持续流行。结论 准噶尔盆地大沙鼠鼠疫流行存在地理区域和时间上的双重波动,以及地理区域上的异质性,并可分为准噶尔盆地西部低山平原粘土荒漠和中东部古尔班通古特沙漠荒漠2个流行区域。
英文摘要:
      Objective To explore the spatial and temporal distributions of animal plague in Junggar Basin natural plague focus. Methods Data regarding plague antibody (F1)in serum of Great Gerbil (Rhombomys opimus, R. opimus) which were collected from 2005 to 2012 in Junggar Basin and analyzed. The changing rates on the positivity of F1 that appeared spatially and temporally were also analyzed. Results A total of 4 825 R. opimus serum samples were collected in 13 administrative regions in Junggar Basin. Results showed that plague R. opimus existed in two areas-Gurbantonggut desert in the eastern-center and the clay desert of western Junggar Basin. However, in these two areas, the intensity of animal plague prevalence was different. In the former region where Yesinia pesos positive serum was detected from R. opimus , the detected rate of R. opimus was 8.39%. However, in the latter areas, the average positive rate was 1.56%. The changing trends of R. opimus plague prevalence were also varied annually. In the western Junggar Basin, the trend showed a slowly downward profile. The serum positive rate of R. opimus for Yesinia pesos decreased, from 7.59% in 2005 to 0.61 % in 2008 , and appeared as a resting state that none of the positive sample could be found since then. However, in the eastern-center Junggar Basin area-also named as Gurbantonggut desert which had been divided into 3 segments (western, central and eastern, according to related geographical characteristics),the changing trends of animal plague seemed quite complex. In the western segment, the animal plague had two epidemic peaks-in 2006 and 2010, with the interval of 4 years, with the higher peak of all the three geographic segments as 45.65% in 2010 and the positive serum of R. opimus for plague could be detected each year from 2446 to 2412. However, there were 3 epidemic peaks in the same period in the central and eastern segments. In the central segment, the peaks appeared in 2006, 2009 and 2011,with the intervals as 2.5 years and the average positive rate 8.92% was seen the lowest in Gurbantonggut desert. In the eastern segment, the first 2 peaks appeared the same season as in the central segment , but the third peak appeared in 2012 , with the peak interval as 3 years. The positive rate of R. opimusfor plague was also different in seasons , with the positive rate higher in autumn than in spring. These findings showed that the animal plague could be continuously prevalent from spring to autumn in the natural foci of plague in the Junggar Basin. Conclusion Both geographical and temporal fluctuations of animal plague existed in the natural foci of 3unggar Basin which was also named as geographical heterogeneity. Consequently, animal plague could be divided into two areas-the clay plains desert in the western and the Gurbantonggut desert in the eastern-center Junggar Basin.
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