文章摘要
于石成,周征奇,杨芳,肖革新,马家奇.中国2008--20 1 13年度重症手足口病的时空聚集性及其变化趋势分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2014,35(3):271-274
中国2008--20 1 13年度重症手足口病的时空聚集性及其变化趋势分析
Temporal and spatial clustering characteristics and changes of severe hand.foot.and mouth disease in mainland of China.from 2008 to 2013
收稿日期:2013-09-09  出版日期:2014-09-18
DOI:
中文关键词: 手足口病;时空聚集性;趋势分析
英文关键词: Hand,foot,andmouth disease;Space-time clustering;Tendency analysis
基金项目:淮河流域癌症综合防治项目(1310800003)
作者单位E-mail
于石成 中国疾病预防控制中心信息中心, 北京 102206 biocomputer@126.com;majq@chinacdc.cn 
周征奇 寄生虫病预防控制所  
杨芳 四川大学华西公共卫生学院  
肖革新 中国国家食品安全风险评估中心  
马家奇 中国疾病预防控制中心信息中心, 北京 102206  
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中文摘要:
      目的分析中国手足口病(HFMD)重症病例的人群分布特点、时空聚集性及变化趋势。方法HFMD重症病例来自2008--201 3年中国疾病预防控制信息系统的数据,按卫生部诊疗指南中的诊断标准。采用时空Kulldorff扫描统计量空间扫描,单位为全国2 900个区县,扫描时间单位为月,时间跨度从2008年5月至2013年8月。用SaTScanTM 9.1软件完成分析;由ArcGIS 10.0软件绘制地图和结果瓦‘视化展示。结果中国2008-2013年监测数据分析显示HFMD重症病例>96%发生于5岁以下儿童;男性明显多于女性,发病率性别比为1.73~1.80:1;>84%为散居儿童。SaTScan分析显示,HFMD重症病例发病有时空聚集性,时间维度多发生在每年5~7月;HFMD重症病例的空间维度多聚集在东南沿海和东中部地区。变化趋势分析显示,2008年1类聚集区域位于东南沿海地区,2009年向北移至东中部地区,2010年从东中部地区往西移动,2011年由东中部地区往东北移动,2012年由东中部地区往西北、西南扩大,涉及18个省,2013年变化趋势与2012年相同,但涉及的省份减少为13个。结论中国重症HFMD病例有时空聚集性,并存在自身变化规律。研究分析结果为卫生行政部门制定重症HFMD防控策略及引导卫生资源合理储备和分配提供科学证据。
英文摘要:
      Objecfive The purpose of this study was to analyze the distribution,temporal andspatial clustering characteristics and changes of severe hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)inorder to provide evidence-based decision making strategY for eontrol and prevention of severe HFMDcases.Methods Severe HFMD cares were extracted from the National Diseases Reporting System ofChinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)between 2008 and 2013.Definition andclinical diagnostic criteria of severe IIFMD cases were set up bV China CDC in the Hand,Foot,andMouth Disease Contr01 and Prevention Guideline.version 20 l 0.Spatial scan unit was under the district/county of 2 900 in mainland China with temporal scan unit as month and time span as from May 2008 to August 20 1 3.Kulldorff scan statistics was applied and analyses were conducted by SaTScanTM 9.1.Mapping and visualizin2 the Results were carried out with ArcGIS 10.0.Results Datarelated to the monitoring program on severe HFMD from 2008 to 20 l 3 demonstrated that above 96%of the severe HFMD cases occurred under 5 years old,mostly males,with the ratio of males to femalesas 1.73-1.80 and over 84%of the children were‘scattered’.Results from SaTScan illustrated that thetemporal and spatial clustering existed among severe HFMD cases.The temporal dimension of severeHFMD was from May to July each year.Spatial dimension was located in south.east coastal area and middle-east area.With respect to the changes of temporal and spatial clustering phenomena.Class lclustering area was 10cated in south.east coastal region in 2008 and in middle.east region in 2009 and was shifting to the west from middle.east region in 201 O.It moved to the north-east from middle-east region in 2011 and to the north-west and south-west from middle.east region in 2012.Class 1 clustering area covered districts/countries from 18 provinces in 2012.The same pattem of Class l clustering area was observed as in the previous year-20 l 3.but with less districts/countries from the l 3provinces.Conclusion Temporal and spatial clustering areas of severe HFMD were presented in thisreport,and the yearly changing pattern of the clustering areas was noted.Findings from this stlldyprovided evidence..based data to the decision..making authorities SO as to prevent deaths from severe HFMD cases under reasonable prevention and control strategies.
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