| 李桂英,卢红艳,孙燕鸣,贺淑芳,马小燕,贺雄.捕获-再捕获法不同标记物对估计男男性行为人群规模影响的调查[J].中华流行病学杂志,2014,35(9):1046-1048 |
| 捕获-再捕获法不同标记物对估计男男性行为人群规模影响的调查 |
| The impact of different markers regarding the estimation of population size under capture-recapture method on men who have sex with men |
| 收稿日期:2014-03-17 出版日期:2014-09-11 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.09.017 |
| 中文关键词: 男男性行为者 捕获-再捕获法 规模估计 |
| 英文关键词: Men who have sex with men(MSM) Capture-recapture method Estimate of the population size |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨捕获-再捕获方法不同标记物对估计MSM规模的影响。方法 2013年3－7月应用捕获-再捕获法，间隔半个月，分别从网络和现场调查前后2次捕获MSM，第一次网络捕获时设 置了2种不同的标记物，采用Chapman等提出的无偏估计公式估计北京地区MSM人群规模。结果 使用第一种标记物估计的北京地区MSM规模为239 258人（95%CI：48 932～429 584）。使用第二种标记 物估计的北京地区MSM规模为115 731人（95%CI：78 153～153 309）。结论 标记物不同，估计的北京地区MSM人群规模相差很大，使用捕获-再捕获原理进行特定人群规模估计时应慎重选择标记物。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To discuss the impact of different markers on the estimation of MSM using the capture-recapture method. Methods From March to July 2013,MSM were captured from the their related network to estimate the site of this population,under the capture-recapture method. Two different markers were set in the process of first ‘capture’. Results The estimated numbers of MSM in Beijing were 239 258(95%CI:48 932-429 584) and 115 731 (95%CI:78 153-153 309) when using the two markers under capture-recapture method. Conclusion The estimated size of MSM population varied greatly under different markers which called for the right selection on markers when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of specific population. |
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