文章摘要
王超,方立群,曹务春,张英杰,曹凯,胥芹,郭秀花.基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2015,36(5):476-480
基于Bayes时空分析探讨气象因素对手足口病的影响
Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory
投稿时间:2014-10-07  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2015.05.014
中文关键词: 手足口病;Bayes时空分析;气象因素
英文关键词: Hand, foot and mouth disease;Bayes spatial-temporal analysis;Meteorological factor
基金项目:国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10005009-003); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2011CB505404)
作者单位E-mail
王超 100069 北京, 首都医科大学公共卫生学院 北京市临床流行病学重点实验室  
方立群 军事医学科学院微生物学和流行病学研究所  
曹务春 军事医学科学院微生物学和流行病学研究所  
张英杰 中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心  
曹凯 100069 北京, 首都医科大学公共卫生学院 北京市临床流行病学重点实验室  
胥芹 100069 北京, 首都医科大学公共卫生学院 北京市临床流行病学重点实验室  
郭秀花 100069 北京, 首都医科大学公共卫生学院 北京市临床流行病学重点实验室 guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 探讨气象因素对我国手足口病患病的影响。方法 采用层次Bayes模型[Besag, York, and Mollie'(BYM) model]对数据进行拟合, 比较空间异质模型(UH)、空间相关模型(CH)和时空交互效应模型对数据的拟合效果, 选取最优模型结合生态学分析手足口病的气象影响因素。结果 加入协变量的时空交互CH+UH拟合效果较优(DIC=35 507.2), 降水量(RR=1.051 7, 95%CI:1.050 4~1.052 5)、平均气压(RR=1.076 4, 95%CI:1.074 8~1.077 9)、平均温度(RR=1.089 6, 95%CI:1.078 1~1.106 9)、平均相对湿度(RR=1.089 0, 95%CI:1.082 1~1.091 2)和日照时数(RR=1.085 1, 95%CI:1.079 8 ~1.087 5)是手足口病的危险因素。结论 手足口病的发生具有时空聚集的特点, 气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切。
英文摘要:
      Objective To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China. Methods Bayesian hierarchical model[Besag, York, and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data. The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model, correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD. Results The UH+CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35 507.2). Rainfall(RR=1.051 7, 95%CI:1.050 4-1.052 5), average temperature(RR=1.089 6, 95%CI:1.078 1-1.106 9), average relative humidity (RR=1.089 0, 95%CI:1.082 1-1.091 2), average air pressure (RR=1.076 4, 95%CI:1.074 8-1.077 9) and hours of sunshine(RR=1.0851, 95%CI:1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD. Conclusion The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics. The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.
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