| 蒋小娟,孟蕾,刘新凤,刘东鹏,苟发香,魏孔福,李治平,成瑶.甘肃省2009-2013年丙型病毒性肝炎发病的时空聚集性探测研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2015,36(8):867-870 |
| 甘肃省2009-2013年丙型病毒性肝炎发病的时空聚集性探测研究 |
| Time-space study on viral hepatitis C in Gansu province, from 2009 to 2013 |
| 收稿日期:2015-01-29 出版日期:2015-08-11 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2015.08.021 |
| 中文关键词: 丙型病毒性肝炎 时空分布 探测 |
| 英文关键词: Viral hepatitis C Time-space distribution Detection |
| 基金项目:甘肃省卫生行业科研计划项目(GSWST2012-06); 国家科技重大专项(2012ZX10004-208) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解2009-2013年甘肃省丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)报告发病率的时空分布特征及探测发病聚集区域。方法 利用甘肃省2009-2013年传染病网络直报系统中丙肝的发病率数据, 使用GeoDa分析丙肝在甘肃省县(区)水平上的全局/局部自相关性, 并用SaTScan软件探测其时空聚集特征。结果 2009-2013年甘肃省丙肝发病率存在全局系相关性, 局部自相关性分析, 发病热点区域为金昌市、武威市、张掖市和兰州市部分县(区), 冷点区域主要分布在定西市、陇南市、平凉市、甘南州及酒泉市、庆阳市、白银市、天水市部分县(区)。时空探测结果显示: 2009-2010年发病存在时空聚集性, 高发病聚集区为天水市秦州区和麦积区, 低发病聚集区最大可能分布在定西市临洮县和临夏州的部分县(区)。2011-2013年高发病聚集区为张掖市、金昌市、武威市、兰州市和白银市的部分县(区), 低发病聚集区主要分布在定西市、天水市、平凉市、陇南市和庆阳市的部分县(区)。结论 2009-2013年甘肃省丙肝发病率存在时空聚集性, 高发病集聚区和低发病聚集区分布随时间变化, 高发病区域主要分布在甘肃省中西部。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the time-space distribution of viral hepatitis C in Gansu province during 2009-2013, using the time-space statistics. Methods Using Geoda to analysis the univariate Moran's I and univariate local Moran's I while using SaTScan to detect the time-space gathering areas. Results There was spatial autocorrelation on incidence of hepatitis C noticed in Gansu during 2009-2013. The hot spots areas were counties as Jinchang, Wuwei, Zhangye and Lanzhou. Cold spot areas would include counties as Dingxi, Longnan, Pingliang, Gannan, Jiuquan, Qingyang, Baiyin and Tianshui. There were time-space gathering areas nitoced, during 2009-2010. Qinzhou and Maiji counties belonged to high incidence gathering areas. Lintao and Linxia were of low incidence gathering areas. In 2011-2013, high incidence gathering area would include counties as Zhangye, Jinchang, Wuwei Lanzhou and Baiyin while low incidence gathering areas would include counties as Dingxi, Tianshui, Pingliang, Longnan and Qingyang. Conclusion There appeared time-space gathering of hepatitis C in Gansu province during 2009-2013. High and low gathering areas varied with time and high incidence gathering area mainly distributed in the western and central areas of Gansu province. |
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