|Association between distribution of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Beijing, 2004-2015
|中文关键词: 细菌性痢疾 分布特征 气象因子 相关分析
|英文关键词: Bacillary dysentery Distribution characteristics Meteorological factor Correlation analysis
| 目的 分析北京市2004－2015年细菌性痢疾的分布特征，探讨气候因素对其时空分布的影响。方法 收集2004－2015年北京市气象资料及细菌性痢疾的发病资料，采用描述性分析方法了解其时空分布特征，直线相关分析和多元线性回归探讨细菌性痢疾发病率与平均降水量、平均气温、日照时数、平均风速、平均气压、大风日数和雨日数的关系。结果 北京市2004－2015年共报告细菌性痢疾患者280 704例，死亡36例，年平均报告发病率130.15/10万，发病集中在每年的5－10月，占报告总病例数的80.75%，0～岁组报告发病率最高，职业以散居儿童和学生最多，男女性别发病比例为1.22 ∶ 1。细菌性痢疾的报告发病率与平均降水量、平均气温和雨日数呈正相关，相关系数分别为0.931、0.878和0.888，与平均气压呈负相关，相关系数值为-0.820；多元逐步回归分析方法拟合细菌性痢疾与气象因素的回归方程为Y=3.792＋0.162X1。结论 北京市细菌性痢疾报告发病率远高于全国发病水平，发病高峰在7－8月，平均降水量是影响细菌性痢疾报告发病率的重要气象因素。
| Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery. Methods The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected. Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery. Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation, average air temperature, sunshine hours, average wind speed, average air pressure, gale and rain days. Results A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery, including 36 deaths, were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing, the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000. The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October, the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75% of the total, and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year. The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students, and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22:1. The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation, average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931, 0.878 and 0.888, but it was negatively associated with the average pressure, the correlation coefficient was -0.820. Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y=3.792+0.162X1. Conclusion The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level. The annual incidence peak was during July to August, and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.