文章摘要
杨静,殷鹏,曾新颖,由金玲,赵艳芳,王卓群,周脉耕.2006-2016年中国室外空气污染的归因死亡分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2018,39(11):1449-1453
2006-2016年中国室外空气污染的归因死亡分析
Deaths attributed to ambient air pollution in China between 2006 and 2016
投稿时间:2018-06-07  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.11.006
中文关键词: 空气污染;死亡
英文关键词: Ambient air pollution;Death
基金项目:卫生部公益性行业科研专项(201502003)
作者单位E-mail
杨静 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心科教与国际合作室  
殷鹏 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室  
曾新颖 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室  
由金玲 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心生命登记与死因监测室  
赵艳芳 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心科教与国际合作室  
王卓群 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心科教与国际合作室  
周脉耕 100050 北京, 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心 zhoumg@chinacdc.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析2006-2016年室外空气污染对我国人群造成的死亡情况。方法 所有数据来自2016年全球疾病负担研究(GBD2016)。GBD2016采用空气质量数据集成模型来估计空气动力学直径<2.5 μm的颗粒物(PM2.5)暴露水平,在计算人群归因分值(PAF)的基础上,计算归因于室外空气污染的死亡数,采用世界标准人口的年龄结构计算年龄标化率,并在不同性别、疾病和省份之间进行比较。结果 2016年中国因室外空气污染导致107.5万例死亡,占总死亡人数的11.1%,其中57.6%为冠心病和脑卒中,男性的归因死亡数是女性的1.7倍;与2006年相比,因室外空气污染导致的死亡人数占总死亡人数的比例下降了6.8%,年龄标化归因死亡率下降了26.5%,各疾病的年龄标化归因死亡率均有所下降,其中冠心病的下降幅度最小(-5.3%),下降幅度较大的是下呼吸道感染(-37.6%)和COPD(-42.1%),男、女性的年龄标化归因死亡率均下降,女性下降幅度(-34.8%)高于男性(-20.4%);分省来看,2016年室外空气污染造成的PAF,天津最高(13.9%),西藏最低(6.1%),京津冀地区、山东、河南、东北三省等地相对较高,香港地区、澳门地区、福建、海南等地相对较低;新疆的年龄标化归因死亡率最高(120.1/10万),香港地区最低(30.9/10万),除此之外,青海、贵州、河南等地相对较高,澳门地区、上海、福建等地相对较低;与2006年相比,17个省份的PAF下降,下降幅度从-4.1%到-16.8%,吉林、黑龙江的PAF值略有增加(5.0%、8.1%)。其余14个省份没有明显变化;各省的年龄标化归因死亡率均下降,下降幅度从-11.9%(黑龙江)到-43.2%(福建),广东、浙江、贵州等地下降幅度相对较高,东北三省、湖北、河北等地下降幅度相对较低。结论 2016年中国由于PM2.5导致的疾病负担巨大,但与2006年相比有所下降,其影响存在性别和地区差异。
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the deaths attributed to ambient air pollution in China between 2006 and 2016. Methods The data were collected from the project of Global Burden of Disease in 2016 (GBD2016). The Data Integration Model for Air Quality were used to estimate exposure to particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5). The attributable death number was calculated based on the calculation of population attributable fraction (PAF), and the results were compared by gender, diseases and provinces. An average world population age structure was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates. Results In 2016, a total of 1 075 000 deaths attributed to ambient air pollution occurred in China, accounting for 11.1% of the total deaths, and 57.6% of the deaths attributed to ambient air pollution were due to ischemic heart disease and stroke. The death number among men was 1.7 times higher than that in women, Compared with 2006, the proportion of ambient air pollution related deaths in total deaths decreased by 6.8%; the age-standardized death rate attributed to ambient air pollution decreased by 26.5% and the decrease rate of lower respiratory infections (37.6%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (42.1%) were greater than ischemic heart disease (5.3%). The age-standardized rate of death attributed to ambient air pollution decreased both in men and in women, but the decrease rate was higher in women (34.8%) than that in men (20.4%). The PAFs varied among provinces, it was highest in Tianjin (13.9%), lowest in Tibet (6.1%), and it was relatively higher in Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and the three provinces in the northeast and relatively lower in Hong Kong, Macao, Fujian and Hainan etc.. The age-standardized rate of death attributed to ambient air pollution was highest in Xinjiang (120.1/100 000) and lowest in Hong Kong (30.9/100 000), and it was relatively higher in Qinghai, Guizhou, Henan and relatively lower in Macao, Shanghai and Fujian, etc.. Compared with 2006, the PAFs of 17 provinces decreased, the decrease rate ranged from 4.1% to 16.8%, whereas the PAF of Jilin (5.0%) and Heilongjiang (8.1%) increased, and the PAFs of other 14 provinces showed no significant change. The attributable age-standardized death rate decreased in all provinces with the decrease rate ranging from 11.9% (Heilongjiang) to 43.2% (Fujian), and the decrease rate was relatively higher in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Guizhou, and lower in the three provinces in the northeast, Hubei and Hebei etc. Conclusions In 2016, the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in China was heavy, but mitigated compared with 2006. The gender and area specific distributions of deaths attributed to ambient air pollution were observed.
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