文章摘要
魏孔福,张宏,何健,苟发香,成瑶,刘新凤.甘肃省2013-2018年布鲁氏菌病空间分布特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2019,40(9):1099-1105
甘肃省2013-2018年布鲁氏菌病空间分布特征分析
Spatial distribution of Brucellosis in Gansu province, 2013-2018
投稿时间:2019-02-12  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.09.015
中文关键词: 布鲁氏菌病;趋势面分析;空间自相关
英文关键词: Brucellosis;Trend surface analysis;Spatial autocorrelation
基金项目:国家科技重大专项(2017ZX10103006)
作者单位E-mail
魏孔福 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000  
张宏 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000  
何健 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000  
苟发香 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000  
成瑶 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000  
刘新凤 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所, 兰州 730000 liuxf606@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析甘肃省2013-2018年布鲁氏菌病(布病)空间分布特征,探索热点、冷点聚集区域,为本地区布病防控提供参考依据。方法 以中国疾病预防控制信息系统为基础,采用ArcGIS 10.5和GeoDa 1.6软件对甘肃省2013-2018年布病发病情况进行分析,探索其空间分布规律和发病热点区域。结果 三维趋势分析显示,甘肃省布病发病由北向南逐渐降低,西部略高于东部地区;全局自相关结果显示,2013-2018年布病报告发病率全局Moran’s I指数分别为0.242、0.487、0.424、0.460、0.427和0.468(P<0.01),提示布病发病呈聚集性分布;局部自相关结果显示热点县(区)数有下降趋势,主要分布在东、中部以北地区;河西地区(武威市、张掖市、金昌市和酒泉市)热点县(区)数有上升趋势。冷点区域主要在甘肃省东部、东南部和中部以南地区。结论 2013-2018年甘肃省布病报告发病率存在空间聚集性,东、中部地区热点县(区)数有下降趋势,河西地区热点县(区)数有上升趋势,应成为今后布病防控的重点区域。
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and both hot and cold spots of incidence on Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018. Methods Based on data from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China, data related to space-time distribution and both hot and cold spots of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were analyzed, by using the ArcGIS 10.5 software and GeoDa 1.6 software. Results The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of Brucellosis decreased gradually from the northern to southern parts with slightly higher in the west than in the east of Gansu. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I of Brucellosis in Gansu province from 2013 to 2018 were 0.242, 0.487, 0.424, 0.460, 0.427 and 0.468 (P<0.01), suggesting that the incidence of Brucellosis had spatial clustering features in Gansu province. Local global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of hot spots were declining in the eastern and north-central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area (Wuwei, Zhangye, Jinchang and Jiuquan cities). The cold spots areas were mainly seen in the eastern, southeastern and south of central regions in Gansu province. Conclusions The incidence of Brucellosis showed obviously spatial clustering characteristics in Gansu province. The number of hot spots were decreasing in the eastern and north of central regions while the hot spots were increasing in the Hexi area, suggesting that the prevention and control measures for Brucellosis should be further strengthened in these areas.
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