文章摘要
吕繁,陈方方.艾滋病疫情估计及结果解读要点[J].中华流行病学杂志,2019,40(10):1191-1196
艾滋病疫情估计及结果解读要点
National HIV/AIDS epidemic estimation and interpretation in China
收稿日期:2019-04-03  出版日期:2019-10-18
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.10.004
中文关键词: 艾滋病;疫情估计;解读
英文关键词: AIDS;Estimation;Interpretation
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
吕繁 中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心, 北京 102206 fanlv@chinaaids.cn 
陈方方 中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心, 北京 102206  
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中文摘要:
      全国艾滋病疫情估计得到我国估计存活的艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)人数、新发感染人数和死亡人数等相关数据,这些信息将成为全面分析中国艾滋病流行形势、循证制定防治策略措施、开展大众宣传等活动的科学依据。然而,疫情估计及其结果能否发挥应有的作用,有赖于对其进行科学的解读。由于历年疫情估计方法、数据的差异,不同年度的估计结果不能直接比较来判断疫情的走势,同时要对估计结果的内涵及其对防治工作的提示进行分析解读。2018年估计结果提示,我国艾滋病现存活人数超过百万,且未来几年将持续增加,防治压力大,形势严峻。传染源管理数量增多,要创新策略减少二代传播。艾滋病向一般人群扩散的态势加剧,亟待强化全人群艾滋病防治策略和措施的落实。现存活的HIV/AIDS中经诊断发现并知晓自身感染状况的比例<70%,与“十三五”行动计划的目标差距明显,各地均有必要进行分析,针对性地采取策略和措施提高发现率。新发感染是评价流行趋势的核心指标,估计结果显示,2018年以来新发感染数约为8万,需要进一步完善策略、加大力度,有效降低艾滋病新发感染。
英文摘要:
      The number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), new HIV infections, and deaths due to HIV in China were estimated. These data provided evidences for the analysis on current HIV/AIDS epidemic in China, development of AIDS prevention and control strategies and public health education. However, whether the estimation results could be fully used in practice depends on appropriate interpretation. Since the differences in estimation methods and data to produce the estimates for each year, it is not suitable to directly use the estimation results of different years to conclude the HIV/AIDS epidemic trends. The 2018 estimation results indicated that the number of PLHIV is already beyond one million by the end of 2018 and would keep growing, causing much pressure of for HIV/AIDS prevention and control. With the increased burden of case management, innovative strategies are needed to reduce secondary transmission of HIV and control the aggravating spread to general population. Less than 70%, which is significantly lower than the goal of China's 13th Five-year Action plan for AIDS prevention and control. All local governments have the necessity of analyzing percentage of PLHIV who know their status, to conduct targeted strategies and measures for the improvement of HIV case finding. New HIV infection is the core indicator for HIV epidemic evaluation. The number of estimated new HIV infections is around 80 000 in 2018. It is necessary to further improve the strategy and increase the intensity to effectively reduce the new infection of HIV.
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