文章摘要
罗冬梅,闫晓晋,雷园婷,胡佩瑾,张京舒,宋逸,马军.1953-2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(2):184-189
1953-2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率趋势和地区差异分析
Secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years, between 1953 and 2010
投稿时间:2019-05-24  
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.009
中文关键词: 全死因死亡;青少年;长期趋势;地区差异
英文关键词: All-cause mortality;Adolescents;Secular trends;Geographic disparities
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(19YJA890022);中国教育学会教育科研“体育与卫生”专项(17TY0131001ZA)
作者单位E-mail
罗冬梅 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
闫晓晋 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
雷园婷 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
胡佩瑾 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
张京舒 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
宋逸 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191 songyi@bjmu.edu.cn 
马军 北京大学公共卫生学院/北京大学儿童青少年卫生研究所 100191  
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析1953-2010年中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率的趋势和地区差异。方法 利用1953-2010年六次全国人口普查数据,计算中国10~24岁青少年全死因死亡率及其年变化率。将各地区人均国内生产总值作为社会经济水平指标,计算青少年死亡的Wagstaff标准化集中指数。结果 1953-2010年,中国青少年死亡率总体表现为男性高于女性,20~24岁组高于15~19和10~14岁组,西部高于东部。中国10~24岁青少年男性全死因死亡率由1953-1964年的554.6/10万下降至2010年的55.7/10万,女性由488.4/10万下降至26.7/10万,女性下降百分比(94.5%)高于男性(90.0%)。1981-2010年青少年男性死亡率年均下降率最大的为北京(4.4%),最小的为青海(0.1%);女性最大的为湖北(6.4%),最小的为青海(0.8%);死亡率较高的省份年均下降率较小。1990、2000和2010年男性青少年死亡集中指数分别为-0.07(95%CI:-0.11~-0.03)、-0.13(95%CI:-0.18~-0.08)和-0.16(95%CI:-0.22~-0.10),女性分别为-0.07(95%CI:-0.13~-0.02)、-0.18(95%CI:-0.24~-0.12)和-0.18(95%CI:-0.26~-0.09)。男、女性在1990、2000和2010年的集中指数比较差异均无统计学意义(P > 0.05)。结论 近半个世纪以来,中国青少年总体死亡率大幅下降,但下降幅度存在性别差异和地区差异。
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the secular trends and geographic disparities of all-cause mortality among Chinese adolescents aged 10-24 years over the period of 1953-2010. Methods Data were extracted from the Chinese National Census in 1953-2010. We calculated the all-cause mortality and annualized rates of the changes. Using the provincial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as an indicator of regional socio-economic development level, we calculated the Wagstaff normal concentration indices for adolescent mortality. Results Over the period of 1953-2010, the general patterns of Chinese adolescent mortality appeared higher in males than those in females, higher in the 20-24-year-old than those in the 15-19 year-old and in the 10-14 year-old groups, higher in adolescents from the western than those in the eastern regions. The mortality of adolescents decreased from 554.6/100 000 in 1953-1964 to 55.7/100 000 in 2010 in males and decreased from 488.4/100 000 to 26.7/100 000 in females, respectively. The percentage of decrease for females (94.5%) was higher than that for males (90.0%). In 1981-2010, the highest annualized rate of decline for males was seen in Beijing (4.4%), with the lowest seen in Qinghai (0.1%). For girls, Hubei showed the highest annualized rate of decline (6.4%) while Qinghai the lowest (0.8%). Provinces that with higher mortality tended to have lower annualized rate of decline. The concentration indices for boys were -0.07 (95%CI:-0.11--0.03), -0.13 (95%CI:-0.18--0.08), and -0.16 (95%CI:-0.22--0.10) in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively, and were -0.07 (95%CI:-0.13--0.02), -0.18 (95%CI:-0.24--0.12), and -0.18 (95%CI:-0.26--0.09) respectively in girls. The indices among 1990, 2000, and 2010 did not show statistically significantly differences, both for boys and girls (P > 0.05). Conclusions Over the half century, the mortality of Chinese adolescents showed dramatic decreasing trend. However, in terms of death rates, gender and geographic disparities were consistently seen in the adolescents.
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