文章摘要
郑文龙,张辉,张爽,沈成凤,王冲,王德征,宋桂德,江国虹.天津市1999-2017年女性乳腺癌死亡水平变化趋势分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1477-1481
天津市1999-2017年女性乳腺癌死亡水平变化趋势分析
Analysis on long-term trend of mortality and years of life lost of breast cancer in women in Tianjin, 1999-2017
收稿日期:2019-10-18  出版日期:2020-09-18
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191018-00741
中文关键词: 乳腺癌;死亡率;趋势
英文关键词: Breast cancer;Mortality;Trend
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
郑文龙 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
张辉 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
张爽 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
沈成凤 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
王冲 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
王德征 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
宋桂德 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011  
江国虹 天津市疾病预防控制中心 300011 jghcdc@126.com 
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中文摘要:
      目的 分析天津市女性乳腺癌死亡水平和长期趋势,为制定干预策略提供参考。方法 基于1999-2017年天津市户籍居民死因监测数据,计算乳腺癌的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、累积率(0~74岁)、截缩率(35~64岁)、过早死亡损失寿命年(YLL)和YLL率等指标,采用Joinpoint回归分析长期趋势。结果 1999-2017年天津市共报告乳腺癌死亡病例8 356人,YLL为262 835.53人年,平均粗死亡率为9.15/10万,平均标化死亡率为6.14/10万,城乡标化死亡率比为1.73:1,城乡年龄组峰值死亡率比为3.13:1。1999-2017年天津市女性乳腺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率均呈上升趋势,2017年较1999年分别上升了113.7%和44.4%;城区死亡率的上升主要来自≥75岁老年群体。农村地区低年龄组死亡率呈快速上升趋势,以45~59岁年龄组上升最快(平均年度变化百分比为3.6%,P<0.01)。结论 天津市女性乳腺癌死亡率和疾病负担仍呈较快上升趋势,应持续实施生活方式干预和重点人群筛查等防治策略,尤其应关注农村地区乳腺癌的上升。
英文摘要:
      Objective To analyze the trends of mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of breast cancer in women in Tianjin and provide references for the development of intervention strategies. Methods The crude mortality rate, standard mortality rate, cumulative rate (0-74 years old) and truncated rate (35-64 years old) of breast cancer in women in Tianjin from 1999 to 2017 were calculated. The annual percentage change of the mortality rate and YLL rate were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. Results From 1999 to 2017, a total of 8 356 deaths of breast cancer were reported in Tianjin, resulting in a YLL of 262 835.53 person-years. The average crude mortality rate was 9.15/100 000. The average age standardized rate(ASR) (World) was 6.14/100 000. The ratio of ASR (World) between urban and rural areas was 1.73:1. The peak mortality ratio of age groups between urban area and rural area was 3.13:1. From 1999 to 2017, both the crude mortality rate and ASR of breast cancer in Tianjin had rising trends. In 2017, the crude mortality rate and the ASR of breast cancer increased by 113.7% and 44.4% respectively compared with 1999. The increase of urban mortality mainly came from elderly group aged ≥75 years, and the mortality of young age groups in rural area showed an fast increases, which was most obvious in age group 45-59 years (average annual percentage change=3.6%, P<0.01). Conclusions The mortality rate of breast cancer and disease burden in women in Tianjin are still in rapid increase. We should continue to implement the prevention and control strategies such as lifestyle intervention and screening of key groups. More attention need to be paid to the increase of breast cancer incidence in rural area.
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