| 孔进姣,王鹏,梁云,苏丽琼,石丽媛.云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州1950－2019年鼠疫流行病学分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(9):1504-1508 |
| 云南省德宏傣族景颇族自治州1950－2019年鼠疫流行病学分析 |
| Epidemiological analysis of Plague in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture of Yunnan province, 1950-2019 |
| 收稿日期:2019-11-28 出版日期:2020-09-18 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20191128-00842 |
| 中文关键词: 鼠疫 流行特征 影响因素 防控策略 |
| 英文关键词: Plague Epidemiological characteristics Influencing factors Prevention and control strategy |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（31660043）；云南省医学学科带头人培养对象（D-201652）；云南省科技计划（2018FB030）；徐建国院士工作站（2018IC155） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 孔进姣 | 云南省地方病防治所, 云南省自然疫源性疾病防控技术重点实验室, 大理 671000
大理大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室, 大理 671000 | | | 王鹏 | 云南省地方病防治所, 云南省自然疫源性疾病防控技术重点实验室, 大理 671000 | | | 梁云 | 云南省地方病防治所, 云南省自然疫源性疾病防控技术重点实验室, 大理 671000 | | | 苏丽琼 | 云南省地方病防治所, 云南省自然疫源性疾病防控技术重点实验室, 大理 671000 | | | 石丽媛 | 云南省地方病防治所, 云南省自然疫源性疾病防控技术重点实验室, 大理 671000 | 15087261364@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析1950－2019年德宏傣族景颇族自治州（德宏州）鼠疫流行情况及影响因素，为制定有效的防控策略提供理论依据。方法 收集1950－2019年德宏州动物和人间鼠疫疫情资料和监测数据资料，进行描述性流行病学方法分析，采用SPSS 20.0软件建立多重线性回归方程，分析动物间鼠疫与鼠密度和蚤指数的相关关系，以及人间鼠疫与动物间鼠疫的相关关系。结果 1950－2019年德宏州鼠疫经历了流行-静息-再流行-再静息的循环流行，在5个县（市）的36个乡（镇）共判定疫点数614个，人间鼠疫流行15个年次，发现1 153例病例，死亡379例。1982－2019年捕获鼠类261 319只，黄胸鼠占70.95%（185 421/261 319）；共检获蚤类70 124匹，印鼠客蚤占76.65%（53 752/70 124）；印鼠客蚤指数为0.57，游离蚤指数为0.22；从285 091份动物标本及60 119组蚤类分离出鼠疫菌1 577及418株；从64 157份血清中检出255份F1抗体阳性标本；2008年后未分离出鼠疫菌，也未发现鼠疫疫情。动物间鼠疫与鼠密度、人间鼠疫与动物间鼠疫回归分析均存在相关关系。结论 德宏州鼠疫呈现长期性、顽固性、稳定性的特点，虽然目前鼠疫处于静息期，但其流行受多种因素的影响，故暴发的不确定性仍然存在。因此，加强动物间疫情的监测对预防人间鼠疫发生至关重要。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemic situation and influencing factors of plague in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous prefectures (Dehong) from 1950 to 2019, for the improvement of strategies on prevention and control of the disease. Methods The epidemic situation and surveillance data of animal and human plague in Dehong prefecture from 1950 to 2019 were collected and analyzed by descriptive epidemiological methods. Multiple linear regression equations were established by SPSS 20.0 software to analyze the relationship between plague among animals and rat density and flea index, as well as the relationship between human plague and plague among animals. Results In Dehong prefecture, plague experienced a phenomenon of epidemic-resting-epidemic- resting cycle, between 1950 and 2019. During this period, 614 epidemic spots were identified in 36 townships of five counties/cities,. Human plague had been prevalent for 15 years, with 1 153 human cases and 379 deaths involved. Between 1982 and 2019, 261 319 rodents were captured, of which Rattus flavipectus accounted for 70.95%(185 421/261 319). A total of 70 124 fleas were seized with 76.65%(53 752/70 124), xenopsylla cheopis as fleas. The index of fleas and free fleas were 0.57 and 0.22 respectively. A total of 1 577 strains of Yersinia pestis were isolated from 285 091 animal specimens and 418 strains of Yersinia pestis were isolated from 60 119 groups of fleas, with 255 F1 antibody positive samples were detected from 64 157 sera samples. Neither Yersinia pestis nor the outbreak of plague had been noticed since 2008. Correlations between both animal plagues and rat density, as well as human plague and animals plague were noticed from the regression analysis. Conclusions The epidemics of plague were with long-term and stable nature, in Dehong prefecture. Affected by many factors, plague seemed in a resting period currently. However, we should be reminded that the fact that outbreak of plague may revive at some uncertaint point. Hence in order to prevent human plague, strategies as careful surveillance programs on animals, need to be strenthened. |
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