武汉市武昌区新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析

陈艳黎; 王辉; 周亚娜; 卢章洪; 彭苗; 孙丰; 黄宜辉

文章摘要

陈艳黎,王辉,周亚娜,卢章洪,彭苗,孙丰,黄宜辉.武汉市武昌区新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(10):1616-1622

武汉市武昌区新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Wuchang district of Wuhan

收稿日期:2020-04-12 出版日期:2020-10-27

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200412-00565

中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征时空分布

英文关键词: COVID-19 Epidemiological characteristic Spatio-temporal distribution

基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2020YFC0841600）；国家中医药管理局“新型冠状病毒感染肺炎中医药专项应急”（2020ZYLCYJ04-7）

作者	单位	E-mail
陈艳黎	武汉市武昌区积玉桥街社区卫生服务中心 430071	whwccyl@163.com
王辉	武汉市武昌区卫生健康局 430071
周亚娜	湖北省中医院, 武汉 430071
卢章洪	武汉大学人民医院 430071
彭苗	湖北省中医院, 武汉 430071
孙丰	湖北省中医院, 武汉 430071
黄宜辉	湖北省中医院, 武汉 430071

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中文摘要:

目的分析武汉市武昌区新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）流行病学特征，为COVID-19疫情防控策略调整提供参考依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息系统中收集截至2020年3月19日武昌区报告COVID-19病例资料。分别采用Excel 2010、SPSS 22.0、Arc GIS10.2和Joinpoint regression program 4.8.0.0软件进行统计学分析。结果截至2020年3月19日武昌区报告COVID-19病例7 547例，其中确诊病例5 448例（占72.19%），临床诊断病例2 009例（占26.62%），无症状感染者90例（占1.19%）。确诊病例中，年龄（56.65±16.25）岁，年龄范围2 d龄~105岁，男性2 634例（占48.35%），女性2 814例（占51.65%），离/退休人员2 492例（占45.74%）。医务人员新型冠状病毒感染例数为545例（占7.22%，545/7 547），确诊365例，死亡5例。确诊病例死亡430例，病死率为7.89%（430/5 448），且男性病死率（10.09%，266/2 634）高于女性（5.82%，164/2 814）。第1个流行高峰为1月24－26日，第2个流行高峰为2月1－5日，3月18日首次报告单日无新增确诊病例。确诊病例的发病率位居前4位的街道分别为黄鹤楼街道（1043.77/10万）、紫阳街道（627.97/10万）、杨园街道（503.67/10万）和水果湖街道（486.02/10万）。相比于女性、≤50岁者、临床分型为轻型病例，男性（RR=0.690，95% CI：0.322~1.478）、>50岁者（RR=11.745，95% CI：6.878~20.058）、临床分型分别为重（RR=2.317，95% CI：1.789~3.000）、危重型（RR=10.794，95% CI：7.997~14.569）和性别时间相依协变量（RR=1.392，95% CI：1.053~1.840）是COVID-19确诊病例预后的相关影响因素。结论武昌区COVID-19病例的性别、年龄和职业分布较为广泛。男性、>50岁者、重/危重型临床分型是确诊病例预后的相关影响因素。针对出院复阳病例、无症状感染者和密切接触者实施规范管理，是降低COVID-19发病率的主要措施。

英文摘要:

Objective To analyzes epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and provide evidence for adjustment for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies. Methods The data of COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district reported as of 19 March, 2020 were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The software's of Excel 2010, SPSSS 22.0, Arc GIS10.2 and Joinpoint regression program 4.8.0.0 were used for statistical analysis. Results A total of 7547 COVID-19 cases had been reported as of 19 March, 2020 in Wuchang district, including 5 448 confirmed cases (72.19%), 2009 clinical diagnosed cases (26.62%) and 90 asymptomatic cases case (1.19%). The age of the cases was (56.65±16.25) years and age ranged from 2 days to 105 years among confirmed cases, 2634 were males (48.35%) and 2814 were females (51.65%), 2 492 were retirees (45.74%). A total of 545 health workers were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (7.22% of all cases) including 365 confirmed cases and 5 cases have died. A total of 430 cases of death were reported with case fatality rate of 7.89% (430/5 448), case fatality rate of males (10.9%, 266/2 634) was higher than that of females (5.82%, 164/2 814). The first phase of epidemic peak was from January 24 to January 26, the second phase of epidemic peak was from February 1 to February 5 and there was no one of new confirmed case in one day for the first time on March 18. The first four Streets with the highest incidence rates of confirmed cases were Huanghelou Street (1 043.77/100 000), Ziyang Street (627.97/100 000), Yangyuan Street (503.67/100 000) and Shuiguohu Street (486.02/100 000). Compared with females, aged ≤50 years and mild cases of clinical classification respectively, males (RR=0.690, 95% CI: 0.322-1.478), aged >50 years (RR=11.745, 95% CI: 6.878-20.058), severe cases (RR=2.317, 95% CI: 1.789-3.000) and critical cases of clinical classification (RR=10.794, 95% CI: 7.997-14.569), and gender time-dependent covariate (RR=1.392, 95% CI: 1.053-1.840) were major influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Conclusions The gender, ages and occupation of distribution were wide among COVID-19 cases in Wuchang district. Males, aged >50 years, severe cases and critical cases of clinical classification were influencing factors of prognosis of COVID-19 confirmed cases. The standardized management of discharged cases, asymptomatic infected cases and close contact persons were main measures to reduce incidence rates of COVID-19 cases.

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