中国2001-2016年麻疹发病率时空分布特征

沈静雯; 潘金花; 王颖; 赵琦; 王伟炳

文章摘要

沈静雯,潘金花,王颖,赵琦,王伟炳.中国2001-2016年麻疹发病率时空分布特征[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(4):608-612

中国2001-2016年麻疹发病率时空分布特征

Spatiotemporal distribution of measles in China, 2001-2016

收稿日期:2020-03-17 出版日期:2021-04-22

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200317-00370

中文关键词: 麻疹时空分布地理信息系统

英文关键词: Measles Spatiotemporal distribution Geographic information system

基金项目:

作者	单位	E-mail
沈静雯	复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病教研室, 公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室, 上海 200032 上海市松江区疾病预防控制中心 201620
潘金花	复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病教研室, 公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室, 上海 200032
王颖	复旦大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室, 上海 200032
赵琦	复旦大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室, 上海 200032	zhaoqi@shmu.edu.cn
王伟炳	复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病教研室, 公共卫生安全教育部重点实验室, 上海 200032

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中文摘要:

目的分析我国麻疹病例时空分布和空间聚集性特征。方法资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病疫情报告监测系统2001-2016年全国麻疹病例数据，人口学数据来源于国家统计局。运用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析，运用SaTScan 9.6软件进行时空扫描分析。结果 2001-2016年全国共报告麻疹1 012 537例，年发病率整体呈下降趋势。2001-2004、2005-2008和2009-2012年的麻疹发病存在全局空间聚集性，其Moran's I值分别为0.29、0.26和0.31。局部空间自相关分析结果显示，麻疹在各时间阶段均存在高-高聚集区域并主要集中在西部地区，同时2005-2008年广东省是一个单独的高-低离散区域，未检测到低-低聚集区域。时空扫描结果显示，2001-2008年我国麻疹病例在西部地区、华中地区和华北地区、山西省和广西壮族自治区形成一个广泛的聚集区。结论 2001-2016年我国麻疹的发病在空间、时间上均存在一定的聚集性，可根据聚集情况，为麻疹防控策略的制定提供依据。

英文摘要:

Objective To understand the spatial-temporal distribution and spatial clusters of measles cases in China.Methods Measles incidence data was collected from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted by using software ArcGIS 10.2 and spatial-temporal scan was conducted by using software SaTScan 9.6. Results A total of 1 012 537 cases of measles were reported in China from 2001 to 2016 and the annual incidence showed a sharp downward trend. There was global spatial clustering of measles cases during 2001-2004, 2005-2008, and 2009-2012, and their Moran's I coefficients were 0.29, 0.26, and 0.31, respectively. The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there were high-high clustering areas of measles at all time periods, especially in western China. Guangdong province was detected as a separate high-low scattered area from 2005 to 2008 and no low-low clustering area was detected. The spatial-temporal scan statistics showed that there was a wide clustering area covering western, central and northern China, and Shanxi province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2001-2008. Conclusion The incidence of measles in China has a certain clustering in both space and time during 2001-2016, the results provide evidence for the development of future strategy of measles prevention and control in China.

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