| 唐上晴,陈雯,赵培祯,郑和平,杨斌,史李铄,凌莉,王成.广东省2005-2017年胎传梅毒时空分布特征及相关因素空间面板数据分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(4):620-625 |
| 广东省2005-2017年胎传梅毒时空分布特征及相关因素空间面板数据分析 |
| Spatiotemporal distribution and related factors of congenital syphilis in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2017: a spatial panel data analysis |
| 收稿日期:2020-08-07 出版日期:2021-04-22 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200807-01043 |
| 中文关键词: 胎传梅毒 时空分布 空间计量模型 相关因素 |
| 英文关键词: Congenital syphilis Spatiotemporal distribution Spatial econometric model Related factors |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（81473065） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2664 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨广东省胎传梅毒发病的时空分布特征及宏观相关因素，为各地区的预防策略提供依据。方法 收集2005-2017年广东省梅毒发病监测数据及相关统计数据，描述胎传梅毒在广东省的时空分布情况，同时构建发病率及相关因素的空间面板数据模型以进行相关因素分析。结果 2005-2017年广东省共报告胎传梅毒病例13 361例。胎传梅毒发病人数从2005年开始逐年上升，至2011年到达最高峰后，呈现缓慢下降趋势，其高发月份集中于8-12月。高发地区主要集中在珠三角地区。空间面板数据模型拟合结果显示，胎传梅毒发病具有空间自相关性（P<0.001），且与女性一期、二期梅毒发病率（β=0.822，P<0.001）、人均地区生产总值（β=3.511，P<0.001）、净迁移率（β=0.215，P=0.047）以及产妇系统管理率（β=0.017，P=0.021）呈正相关；与户籍人口密度（β=-1.167，P<0.001）、产前检查率（β=-0.038，P=0.031）呈负相关。结论 2005-2017年广东省胎传梅毒发病具有季节性与空间聚集性。经济发达、净迁移率较高的地区胎传梅毒发病风险较高，需重点防治。控制女性一期、二期梅毒发病率，提高孕产妇产前检查率，有利于胎传梅毒的预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution and macro-related factors of congenital syphilis in Guangdong province and provide suggestions and recommendations for prevention.Methods Yearly reported cases of syphilis and some influencing factor data of Guangdong province were collected from 2005 to 2017. The spatiotemporal distribution of congenital syphilis was described. Meanwhile, the spatial panel data model was constructed to analyze the relationship between the incidence rates of congenital syphilis and related factors.Results From 2005 to 2017, 13 361 cases of congenital syphilis were reported in Guangdong province. The number of congenital syphilis cases rose to its highest point during 2005-2011. A slow downward trend followed. The peaks of incidence were observed from August to December. The incidence of the non-Pearl River Delta region has experienced a process of rising first and then decreasing. The spatial panel data model results showed that congenital syphilis had significant positive spatial autocorrelation (P<0.001). The incidence of primary and secondary syphilis in women (β=0.822,P<0.001), gross domestic product per capita (β=3.511,P<0.001), net migrate rate (β=0.215,P=0.047) and maternal system management rate β=0.017,P=0.021) were all positively correlated with the incidence rates of congenital syphilis. Registered population density (β=-1.167,P<0.001) and prenatal examination rate (β=-0.038,P=0.031) was negatively correlated with congenital syphilis.Conclusions The incidence of congenital syphilis was spatially aggregated in Guangdong province from 2005 to 2017. The intensity of prevention might be strengthened in cities with developed economies and high net migration rates, which have high risks of congenital syphilis. Controlling the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis in women and increasing the prenatal examination rate for pregnant women appears effective prevention measures of congenital syphilis. |
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