| 吴双胜,潘阳,孙瑛,马春娜,段玮,张莉,王全意,庞星火.新型冠状病毒肺炎病例呼吸道病毒载量与密切接触者续发风险的关系[J].中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(6):1008-1011 |
| 新型冠状病毒肺炎病例呼吸道病毒载量与密切接触者续发风险的关系 |
| Relationship between respiratory viral load of cases of COVID-19 and secondary attack risk in close contacts |
| 收稿日期:2021-02-24 出版日期:2021-06-29 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210224-00141 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 新型冠状病毒 病毒载量 传染力 密切接触者 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Viral load Infectivity Close contact |
| 基金项目:北京市科技计划（Z201100008920004）；国家自然科学基金（82041027） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）病例N基因Ct值与其密切接触者续发风险的关系，进而探索呼吸道病毒载量与其传染力的关系。方法 选择北京市发病0~7 d内有N基因Ct值记录的COVID-19确诊病例，将其密切接触者作为研究对象。收集密切接触者相关信息，主要包括性别、年龄、隔离方式、暴露方式、转归情况（发病与否）等变量。应用非条件多因素logistic回归模型分析COVID-19病例发病0~7 d内N基因Ct值与其密切接触者转归之间关联。结果 在1 618名密切接触者中，77人转归为COVID-19确诊病例或无症状感染者，续发率为4.8%。多因素分析显示，通过同餐（OR=2.741，P=0.054）、同住（OR=9.721，P<0.001）方式暴露、非集中隔离（OR=18.437，P<0.001）、对应病例发病0~7 d内N基因Ct值<20（OR=8.998，P=0.004）或Ct值在20~25之间（OR=3.547，P=0.032）是密切接触者续发风险增加的危险因素。结论 COVID-19病例呼吸道病毒载量与其传染力之间存在明确的正相关，提示COVID-19病例N基因Ct值可以作为其密切接触者管理的参考指标之一。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the relationship between the cycle threshold (Ct) values of N gene of COVID-19 cases and the secondary attack risk in close contacts, and identify the relationship between respiratory viral load and infectivity in COVID-19 cases.Methods The COVID-19 cases with records of Ct values of N gene within 0-7 days of onset were selected, and their close contacts were recruited as the subjects of study. We collected the information of close contacts, including name, gender, age, isolation mode, exposure mode and outcome (whether they were infected with SARS-CoV-2 or not) and other variables. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify the relationship between Ct values of N gene of COVID-19 cases and secondary attack risk in close contacts. Results A total of 1 618 close contacts were recruited, in whom 77 were confirmed as symptomatic or asymptomatic COVID-19 patients with overall secondary attack rate of 4.8%. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that eating together (OR=2.741, P=0.054), living together (OR=9.721, P<0.001), non-centralized isolation (OR=18.437, P<0.001) and COVID-19 case's values of N gene within 0-7 days of onset being <20 (OR=8.998, P=0.004) or 20-25 (OR=3.547, P=0.032) were significantly associated with higher likelihood of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 in close contacts.Conclusion The results indicated that positive relationship exists between respiratory viral load and infectivity in COVID-19 cases, suggesting that Ct values of N gene can be used as an early warning indicator for the management of close contacts of COVID-19 cases. |
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