| 周林,王莹,张先慧,马霞,宫舒萍,张军.济南市2015-2020年4类重大慢性病死亡水平及早死概率变化趋势分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(3):354-358 |
| 济南市2015-2020年4类重大慢性病死亡水平及早死概率变化趋势分析 |
| Analysis on mortality and premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan, 2015-2020 |
| 收稿日期:2021-08-23 出版日期:2022-03-21 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210823-00668 |
| 中文关键词: 心脑血管疾病 癌症 慢性呼吸系统疾病 糖尿病 |
| 英文关键词: Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases Cancer Chronic respiratory diseases Diabetes |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及其变化趋势。方法 利用2015-2020年济南市的死因监测资料和人口资料，应用简略寿命表法、Joinpoint回归法等方法，分析4类重大慢性病早死概率的特点及变化趋势。结果 2015-2020年4类重大慢性病的粗死亡率、标化死亡率变化范围分别为568.65/10万~604.06/10万、366.77/10万~432.48/10万。2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率平均每年下降3.33%［平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）=-3.33%，95%CI：-6.25%~-0.32%］，以心脑血管疾病（AAPC=-3.23%，95%CI：-6.32%~-0.05%）和恶性肿瘤（AAPC=-3.58%，95%CI：-6.83%~-0.21%）下降为主，女性下降速度（AAPC=-4.19%，95%CI：-7.56%~-0.70%）大于男性（AAPC=-2.92%，95%CI：-5.65%~-0.11%）。结论 2015-2020年济南市4类重大慢性病早死概率呈下降趋势，防控工作中应将男性群体列为重点人群，还要注意慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病的下降趋势不显著的现象。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To understand the characteristics and trend of the premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Methods The death cause surveillance data and population data during 2015-2020 in Ji'nan were collected, and abbreviated life table, Joinpoint regression analysis and other methods were used to analyze the characteristics and change trends of the premature death rates of 4 major chronic diseases. Results The crude mortality rate and age standardized mortality rate changes for the 4 major chronic diseases from 2015 to 2020 range from 568.65/100 000 to 604.06/100 000 and 366.77/100 000 to 432.48/100 000, respectively. The annual premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases declined by 3.33% averagely from 2015 to 2020 (95%CI:-6.25%- -0.32%), which might be explained by the declines of the premature death rates of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases[average annual percentage change (AAPC)=-3.23%, 95%CI:-6.32%- -0.05%] and cancer (AAPC=-3.58%,95%CI:-6.83%- -0.21%). The average decline rate in women (AAPC=-4.19%,95%CI:-7.56%- -0.70%) was higher than that in men (AAPC=-2.92%,95%CI:-5.65%- -0.11%). Conclusions The premature death rate of 4 major chronic diseases showed a downward trend in Ji'nan from 2015 to 2020. Men should be considered as a key population in the prevention and control of 4 major chronic diseases, and attention should also be paid to the non-significant declines in the premature death rates of chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. |
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