| 吴瑜燕,王桢,柴程良,何凡,凌锋,潘劲,李傅冬,程伟,刘魁,张钰,章光明,俞敏.绍兴市上虞区Delta变异株引起的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(6):846-851 |
| 绍兴市上虞区Delta变异株引起的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征 |
| Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 caused by 2019-nCoV Delta variant in Shangyu district, Shaoxing of Zhejiang province |
| 收稿日期:2022-01-28 出版日期:2022-06-16 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220128-00087 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 Delta变异株 流行病学特征 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 Delta variant Epidemiological characteristic |
| 基金项目:浙江省基础公益研究项目（LGF21H260003） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 吴瑜燕 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 王桢 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 柴程良 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 何凡 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 凌锋 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 潘劲 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 李傅冬 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 程伟 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 刘魁 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 张钰 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | | | 章光明 | 金华市疾病预防控制中心, 金华 321000 | | | 俞敏 | 浙江省疾病预防控制中心, 杭州 310051 | myu@cdc.zj.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 对2021年绍兴市上虞区由Delta变异株引起的新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的流行病学特征进行分析，为优化疫情防控措施提供科学依据。方法 收集2021年12月7-21日上虞区的COVID-19病例相关信息，分析本次疫情的三间分布，估算潜伏期以及实时再生数（Rt）。结果 2021年12月7-21日上虞区累计发现COVID-19病例380例，均为确诊病例，年龄M（Q1，Q3）为52（38，61）岁；男女性别比为1∶1.25；职业以工人（36.58%）和农民（27.63%）为主；此次疫情共波及上虞区的9个乡镇/街道，主要集中在曹娥街道（57.10%）和百官街道（31.53%）。COVID-19病例的潜伏期M（Q1，Q3）为4.00（3.00，5.75）d。基本再生数（R0）为4.06，Rt早期最高为5.62，在疫情发现后呈下降趋势，10 d内降至1.00以下。疫情自发现后14 d（12月7-21日）单日发病人数首次下降为0，主要的发现方式为集中隔离发现（55.53%）和居家隔离发现（40.00%）；密切接触者（密接）和密接的密接（次密）新型冠状病毒感染率分别为2.06%和0.46%。结论 2021年绍兴市上虞区COVID-19疫情病毒潜伏期较短，波及人员数量多，存在聚集性疫情，提示新型冠状病毒Delta变异株的传染性强，密接和次密人群的排查与管理、风险区管控或为控制疫情的关键。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 caused by 2019-nCoV Delta variant in Shangyu district, Shaoxing of Zhejiang province in 2021, and provide evidence for the improvement of COVID-19 control and prevention measures. Methods The incidence data of COVID-19 in Shangyu from December 7 to 21, 2021 was obtained from Shangyu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The epidemiological characteristics of the cases, i.e. the population, time and space distributions, were analyzed, and the incubation period and time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) were calculated. Results From December 7 to 21, 2021, a total of 380 COVID-19 cases caused by 2019-nCoV Delta variant were detected in Shangyu, the median age of the cases was 52 years, M (Q1，Q3: 38, 61). The male to female ratio of the cases was 1∶1.25, and the cases were mainly workers (36.58%) and farmers (27.63%). The epidemic affected 9 townships (or community) of Shangyu, especially Caoe and Baiguan communities with the cases accounting for 57.10% and 31.53% respectively. The median incubation period of cases was 4.00 days, M (Q1，Q3: 3.00, 5.75). The basic reproduction number (R0) was 4.06, and the Rt was 5.62 in early phase of the outbreak (the highest) and continuously decreased to less than 1.00 within 10 days after the detection of the outbreak. The number of COVID-19 cases decreased to 0 within 14 days after the outbreak (December 7-21), and the main detection methods were screening in centralized isolation (55.53%) and home isolation (40.00%). The infection rates of close contacts and secondary close contacts were 2.06% and 0.46% respectively. Conclusion The epidemic of COVID-19 in Shangyu characterized by short incubation period, large number of infected people, and case clustering, suggesting the strong transmission of Delta variant (B.1.617.2). Comprehensive prevention and control measures, such as management of close contacts and secondary close contacts, and high-risk area, are essential for the rapid control of the epidemic. |
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