| 洪洁,赵峥,苏晴,黄家祺,陈希,乐佳徐,刘修良,胡艺,高道舟,张志杰.手足口病传播动力学模型的研究进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(6):966-973 |
| 手足口病传播动力学模型的研究进展 |
| Research advances in transmission dynamic models on hand, foot, and mouth disease |
| 收稿日期:2021-12-21 出版日期:2022-06-16 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20211221-01006 |
| 中文关键词: 手足口病 数学模型 传播动力学 |
| 英文关键词: Hand, foot, and mouth disease Mathematical model Transmission dynamics |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（81673239）；上海市卫生健康委重点学科建设（GWV-10.1-XK16）；上海市自然科学基金（20ZR1440600） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 洪洁 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 赵峥 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 苏晴 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 黄家祺 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 陈希 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 乐佳徐 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 刘修良 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 胡艺 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | | | 高道舟 | 上海师范大学数学系, 上海 200234 | | | 张志杰 | 复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学与卫生统计教研室, 上海 200032 | epistat@gmail.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 手足口病是由多种肠道病毒引起的常见儿童传染病，我国是全球手足口病报告发病、死亡最多的国家。掌握手足口病的流行规律，可为防控措施的有效制定提供针对性的科学依据。传播动力学模型着眼于传染病的传播机制，可通过增减、细分仓室来模拟真实情景开展疾病的流行规律研究，灵活度较高，受到研究者们的关注。为了更有效地开展手足口病的动力学模型研究，全面了解该领域的相关研究进展是必要的。本文基于研究目的的不同对动力学模型的研究进展进行分类总结。回顾发现，现在的文献多是使用SIR动力学模型或其扩展模型（如SEIR模型），较少含有复杂的因素仓室，研究或通过对某区域的手足口病数据拟合以获得某些重要流行病学参数（如基本再生数）；或对不同干预场景进行模拟，评估措施效果；或进行预测，揭示未来流行趋势；也有一些文章考虑了模型中参数的影响因素，尚无动力学模型同时考虑年龄结构、人口流动、季节性与周期性、疫苗接种等因素。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infectious disease caused by various enteroviruses. China has the most significant number of reported cases and deaths of HFMD over the globe. Understanding the epidemic laws of HFMD can provide a scientific basis for designing prevention and control measures. The dynamic transmission models focus on the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases. They can simulate the actual situation to study the epidemic rules of diseases by adding, deleting, and subdividing compartments. More researchers have paid attention to dynamic models because of their high flexibility. To carry out the dynamic model of the HFMD research more effectively, a comprehensive understanding of related research progress in this field is deeply needed. In this paper, based on various researchers' different research purposes of dynamic models, the research progress was classified and summarized, providing meaningful guidance for model construction methods and future research directions and references for dynamic modeling of other models of infectious diseases. It was found that most studies used the SIR dynamic model or its extended model (such as the SEIR model), and few studies contained a complex factor compartment. Some important epidemiological parameters (such as R0) were obtained by studying the HFMD cases in a specific region, simulating different intervention scenarios to evaluate the effect of measures, or revealing the future trend by model prediction. However, there is no dynamic model simultaneously considering age structure, population moving, seasonality and periodicity, and vaccination. |
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