文章摘要
汪亚萍,景文展,杜敏,康良钰,商伟静,刘珏,刘民.“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(7):1053-1059
“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究
Epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and change trend in Belt and Road countries
收稿日期:2022-01-26  出版日期:2022-07-15
DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220126-00075
中文关键词: 一带一路  艾滋病病毒/艾滋病  发病率  趋势
英文关键词: Belt and Road  HIV/AIDS  Incidence  Trend
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(71934002,72122001)
作者单位E-mail
汪亚萍 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
景文展 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
杜敏 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
康良钰 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
商伟静 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
刘珏 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191  
刘民 北京大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系, 北京 100191 liumin@bjmu.edu.cn 
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中文摘要:
      目的 了解“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状及变化趋势,为防范HIV/AIDS跨境传播提供依据。方法 选取与我国签署了共建“一带一路”合作文件的145个国家为本研究的“一带一路”沿线国家;145个国家2013-2019年HIV/AIDS年龄标化的发病率、患病率数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究。使用2019年年龄标化的发病率、患病率描述145个国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状。通过计算年估计百分比变化(EAPC),分析HIV/AIDS发病率在2013-2019年的变化趋势。结果 2019年,在非洲、亚洲、欧洲、北美洲、南美洲和大洋洲中,HIV/AIDS发病率≥40.00/10万的国家占比最高的地区是非洲,为56.86%(29/51);最低的是亚洲,为5.41%(2/37)。145个国家中,HIV/AIDS患病率≥100.00/万的国家多数位于非洲,占20.69%(30/145)。2013-2019年,HIV/AIDS发病率呈上升趋势的国家共50个(34.48%,50/145);呈下降趋势的国家共69个(47.59%,69/145);无显著变化的国家共26个(17.93%,26/145)。其中发病率上升速度最快的国家是科摩罗(EAPC=15.60,95%CI:5.84~26.26),下降速度最快的国家是布隆迪(EAPC=-14.27,95%CI:-15.21~-13.31)。结论 “一带一路”沿线国家中,非洲国家HIV/AIDS疫情较严峻;部分欧洲国家HIV/AIDS发病率上升速度较快,存在跨境传播风险,未来应进一步加强我国艾滋病防控工作。
英文摘要:
      Objective To understand the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries and provide evidence for the improvement of prevention and control of the cross-border transmission of HIV/AIDS. Methods The 145 countries that have signed the cooperation document of the Belt and Road initiative with China were selected in our study. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the 145 countries from 2013 to 2019 were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in 2019 were used to describe the HIV/AIDS epidemics in 145 countries, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence was calculated to analyze the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence from 2013 to 2019. Results In 2019, Africa had the highest proportion of countries with HIV/AIDS incidence exceeding 40.00 per 100 000 (56.86%, 29/51), and Asia had the lowest proportion (5.41%, 2/37). The countries with the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS exceeding 100.00 per 10 000 were almost distributed in Africa, accounting for 20.69% (30/145). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS increased in 50 countries, accounting for 34.48% (50/145). The incidence rate of HIV/AIDS showed downward trends in 69 countries (47.59%, 69/145), and showed no significant change in 26 countries (17.93%, 26/145). The most obvious increase of incidence rate of HIV/AIDS was observed in Comoros (EAPC=15.60, 95%CI:5.84-26.26) and the most obvious decrease was observed in Burundi (EAPC=-14.27, 95%CI:-15.21 to -13.31). Conclusions In the Belt and Road countries, the most severe disease burden of HIV/AIDS was observed in countries in Africa, and the incidences of HIV/AIDS increased rapidly in some European countries, which means the risk of cross-border transmission still exists. Hence, the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in China should be further strengthened in the future.
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