| 史甜山,孟蕾,李冬花,张晓曙,赵祥凯,金娜,刘妍琛,郑洪淼,赵昕,李娟生,申希平,任晓卫.基于中断时间序列评价乙型脑炎疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甘肃省乙型脑炎报告发病率的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(7):1087-1092 |
| 基于中断时间序列评价乙型脑炎疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甘肃省乙型脑炎报告发病率的影响 |
| Evaluation of the impact of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine included in an expanded immunization program on the reported incidence rate of Japanese encephalitis in Gansu province-based on interrupted time series |
| 收稿日期:2021-12-14 出版日期:2022-07-15 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20211214-00980 |
| 中文关键词: 乙型脑炎 发病率 疫苗 扩大免疫规划 中断时间序列 |
| 英文关键词: Japanese encephalitis Incidence rate Vaccine Expanded immunization program Interrupted time series |
| 基金项目:甘肃省自然科学基金(18JR3RA040,20JR10RA598) |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 史甜山 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 孟蕾 | 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心, 兰州 730000 | | | 李冬花 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 张晓曙 | 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心, 兰州 730000 | | | 赵祥凯 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 金娜 | 甘肃省疾病预防控制中心, 兰州 730000 | | | 刘妍琛 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 郑洪淼 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 赵昕 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 李娟生 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 申希平 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | | | 任晓卫 | 兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所, 兰州 730000 | renxw@lzu.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 评价乙型脑炎（乙脑）疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划对甘肃省乙脑报告发病率的影响。方法 通过国家人口健康科学数据中心和中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集1987-2019年甘肃省乙脑报告发病率资料，并利用中断时间序列设计分析乙脑疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划前后甘肃省乙脑报告发病率的变化趋势。结果 1987-2019年甘肃省乙脑年报告发病率平均为0.448/10万，甘肃省将乙脑疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划后，乙脑报告发病率的水平变化量为-2.223/10万（t=-2.90，P=0.007），乙脑报告发病率的斜率变化量为0.082（t=2.87，P=0.008），乙脑报告发病率的斜率为0.071（β1+β3=0.071）。结论 乙脑疫苗在甘肃省纳入扩大免疫规划后短期内取得了较好的防控效果，但仍出现了乙脑暴发。甘肃省应及时调整乙脑疫苗的免疫策略，继续重视儿童青少年疫苗接种，加强成年人群特别是甘肃省东南部农村地区成年人群的疫苗接种工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To evaluate the impact of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine included in an expanded immunization program on the reported incidence rate of Japanese encephalitis in Gansu province. Methods Information on the reported incidence rate of Japanese encephalitis in Gansu province from 1987 to 2019 was collected through the National Population Health Science Data Center and the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. In addition, the trend of Japanese encephalitis reported incidence rate in Gansu province before and after the inclusion of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine in the expanded immunization program was analyzed using an interrupted time-series design. Results The annual reported incidence rate of Japanese encephalitis in Gansu province from 1987 to 2019 was 0.448/per 100 000. However, after the inclusion of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine in the expanded immunization program in Gansu province in 2008, the amount of change in the level of Japanese encephalitis reported incidence rate was -2.223/per 100 000 (t=-2.90, P=0.007), the amount of change in the slope of Japanese encephalitis reported incidence rate was 0.082 (t=2.87, P=0.008) with the slope of Japanese encephalitis reported incidence rate as 0.071 (β1+β3=0.071). Conclusions The Japanese encephalitis vaccine has achieved good prevention and control effects in Gansu province in the short term after its inclusion in the expanded immunization program, but outbreaks of Japanese encephalitis have still occurred. Therefore, in the future, Gansu province should promptly adjust the immunization strategy of the Japanese encephalitis vaccine, and strengthen the vaccination of the adult population, especially the rural adult population in the southeastern region of Gansu province, based on the continued focus on the works on Japanese encephalitis vaccination for children and adolescents. |
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