| 吴月琳,朱文倩,岳晓丽,李婧,张家晖,龚向东.新型冠状病毒肺炎流行对我国梅毒病例报告结果的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2022,43(12):2015-2020 |
| 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行对我国梅毒病例报告结果的影响 |
| Impact of COVID-19 epidemic on syphilis case reporting in China |
| 收稿日期:2022-09-20 出版日期:2022-12-17 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220920-00794 |
| 中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 梅毒 流行 Joinpoint回归 相关性 |
| 英文关键词: COVID-19 Syphilis Epidemic Joinpoint regression Correlation |
| 基金项目:中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程（CIFMS-2021-I2M-1-001） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）流行对我国梅毒病例报告的影响，为科学研判梅毒疫情形势和加强新冠肺炎流行背景下梅毒的防控工作提供依据。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统、全国性病防治管理信息系统和github官网下载“nCov2019”R包。比较新冠肺炎流行前后我国梅毒病例报告数的变化；基于2010-2018年梅毒病例报告数建立Joinpoint回归模型，使用2019年数据进行验证，并预测2020和2021年的梅毒病例数。通过计算梅毒实际病例报告数与预测数之间的百分比误差评估新冠肺炎流行对梅毒病例报告数的影响。使用Spearman相关分析梅毒与新冠肺炎病例报告数的相关性。应用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0和SPSS 18.0软件进行统计学分析。结果 相比于新冠肺炎流行之前（2019年），2020和2021年全国梅毒病例报告数分别减少13.32%和10.41%，2021年梅毒病例报告数比2020年上升3.36%。2020和2021年全国梅毒病例报告数较预测数分别减少17.95%和20.41%。2020年1-3月，梅毒月病例报告数与新冠肺炎月确诊病例数呈完全负相关（rs=-1.00，P<0.001）。新冠肺炎流行程度不同的省份每月梅毒病例报告数与新冠肺炎确诊病例数也呈负相关（均P<0.05）。结论 2020和2021年我国梅毒病例报告数的变化与新冠肺炎流行密切相关，受新冠肺炎流行的影响，梅毒病例报告数比新冠肺炎流行之前显著降低，但尚不能认为未来我国梅毒发病呈下降趋势，需要慎重和科学研判梅毒疫情变化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on syphilis case reporting in China, and provide evidence to evaluate the epidemic situation of syphilis and strengthen the prevention and control of syphilis during COVID-19 epidemic. Methods The data were collected from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, National STD Management Information System, and the "nCov2019" R package of github website. The changes of reported cases of syphilis before and during COVID-19 epidemic in China were analyzed. Joinpoint regression model was established by using the reported case number of syphilis from 2010 to 2018, the data in 2019 was used for validation, and the number of syphilis cases in 2020 and 2021 was predicted. The impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the number of syphilis cases was evaluated with calculating the percentage error (PE) between actual number and predicted number of syphilis cases reported.The correlation between reported cases of syphilis and COVID-19 was analyzed by Spearman's correlation analysis. The softwares of Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 and SPSS 18.0 were used for statistical analysis. Results In 2020 and 2021, the reported cases of syphilis in China decreased significantly by 13.32% and 10.41%, respectively, compared with 2019 (before COVID-19 epidemic), and the reported cases of syphilis in 2021 increased by 3.36% compared with 2020. The reported cases of syphilis in 2020 and 2021 decreased by 17.95% and 20.41%, respectively, compared with predicted numbers. From January to March 2020, the reported monthly case number of syphilis was completely negatively correlated with the confirmed case number of COVID-19 (rs=-1.00, P<0.001). In the provinces with different scales of COVID-19 epidemic, there was also a negative correlation between the monthly reported case number of syphilis and confirmed case number of COVID-19 (all P<0.05). Conclusions In China, the change of reported cases of syphilis was closely associated with COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021. Due to the influence of COVID-19 epidemic, the number of reported cases of syphilis decreased significantly, but it should not be thought that syphilis incidence will become a decline trend in the future. It is necessary to carefully and scientifically assess the changes in syphilis epidemic. |
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