| 赵文煜,朱晓艳,李玲,张娜,黄鹏翔,廖玫珍,李亚君,王国永,康殿民.山东省2017-2021年HIV感染者艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2023,44(10):1634-1640 |
| 山东省2017-2021年HIV感染者艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素分析 |
| Analysis of factors influencing AIDS-related deaths among HIV-infected people in Shandong Province， 2017-2021 |
| 收稿日期:2023-03-10 出版日期:2023-10-12 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20230310-00138 |
| 中文关键词: 艾滋病病毒 相关死亡 Cox比例风险回归模型 影响因素 |
| 英文关键词: HIV Related death Cox proportional hazards regression model Influencing factor |
| 基金项目:江西省卫生健康委员会科技计划（202211291） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析山东省HIV感染者艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素，为降低死亡风险及延长生存时间提供参考。方法 研究对象为2017-2021年山东省HIV感染者，采用Cox比例风险回归模型分析艾滋病相关死亡及确证1年内死亡的影响因素。结果 2017-2021年山东省报告的14 700例HIV感染者中，发生艾滋病相关死亡351例，占2.4%（351/14 700）。多因素Cox比例风险回归模型分析结果显示，HIV感染者艾滋病相关死亡的危险因素包括文化程度为初、高中/中专（aHR=1.37，95%CI：1.01~1.84）、样本来源自医疗机构（aHR=1.61，95%CI：1.22~2.12）、病程为艾滋病期（aHR=9.86，95%CI：6.86~14.19）、未检测基线CD4+T淋巴细胞（CD4）（aHR=3.93，95%CI：2.69~5.75）、抗病毒治疗（ART）时间<6个月（aHR=3.46，95%CI：2.42~4.93）和未ART（aHR=1.45，95%CI：1.02~2.07）、末次CD4<200个/μl（aHR=3.51，95%CI：2.18~5.65）和末次CD4未检测（aHR=10.58，95%CI：6.15~18.19）、末次病毒载量（VL）值为50~999拷贝数/ml、≥1 000拷贝数/ml和未检测（aHR=2.59，95%CI：1.07~6.26；aHR=9.50，95%CI：5.60~16.12；aHR=15.33，95%CI：8.91~26.36）；HIV感染者确证1年内发生艾滋病相关死亡风险较高的因素包括样本来源自医疗机构（aHR=1.68，95%CI：1.19~2.36）、病程为艾滋病期（aHR=10.60，95%CI：7.13~15.75）、基线CD4未检测（aHR=3.71，95%CI：2.34~5.90）、ART时间<6个月（aHR=4.30，95%CI：2.85~6.49）和未ART（aHR=2.05，95%CI：1.35~3.13）、末次CD4<200个/μl（aHR=5.45，95%CI：2.04~14.60）和末次CD4未检测（aHR=20.95，95%CI：7.69~57.04）、末次VL值为50~999、≥1 000拷贝数/ml和未检测（aHR=15.21，95%CI：2.54~91.21；aHR=42.93，95%CI：9.64~191.20；aHR=61.35，95%CI：13.85~271.77）。结论 扩大检测覆盖面，促进早发现和早治疗，加强对HIV感染者的定期随访和检测，掌握病程进展并进行精准管理和治疗，对降低HIV感染者病死率和延长生存时间有重要作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To explore the influencing factors of AIDS-related deaths among HIV-infected patients in Shandong Province, to help reduce the risk of death and prolong survival time. Methods The study population was HIV-infected patients in Shandong Province from 2017-2021, and Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of AIDS-related deaths and deaths within one year of confirmation. Results Among 14 700 HIV- infected patients reported in Shandong Province in 2017-2021, 351 AIDS-related deaths occurred, accounting for 2.4% (351/14 700). The results of multifactorial Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that the risk factors for AIDS-related deaths among HIV-infected patients included education level of junior high school, high school, and secondary school (aHR=1.37, 95%CI:1.01-1.84), sample source from healthcare institutions (aHR=1.61, 95%CI:1.22-2.12), duration of disease in AIDS stage (aHR=9.86,95%CI:6.86-14.19), baseline CD4+T lymphocytes (CD4) undetected (aHR=3.93, 95%CI:2.69-5.75), duration of antiviral treatment (ART) <6 months (aHR=3.46, 95%CI:2.42-4.93) and no ART (aHR=1.45, 95%CI:1.02-2.07), final CD4 <200 cells/μl (aHR=3.51, 95%CI:2.18-5.65) and final CD4 undetected (aHR=10.58, 95%CI:6.15-18.19), and final viral load (VL) values of 50-999 copies/ml,≥1 000 copies/ml and undetected (aHR=2.59, 95%CI:1.07-6.26; aHR=9.50, 95%CI:5.60-16.12; aHR=15.33, 95%CI:8.91-26.36). Factors with higher risk of AIDS-related deaths within one year of confirmation of HIV-infected patients included samples originating from healthcare facilities (aHR=1.68, 95%CI: 1.19-2.36), AIDS stage of disease (aHR=10.60, 95%CI:7.13-15.75), baseline CD4 undetected (aHR=3.71, 95%CI:2.34-5.90), duration of ART <6 months (aHR=4.30, 95%CI:2.85-6.49) and no ART (aHR=2.05, 95%CI:1.35-3.13), final CD4 <200 cells/μl (aHR=5.45,95%CI:2.04-14.60) and final CD4 undetected (aHR=20.95, 95%CI: 7.69- 57.04), and final VL values of 50-999 copies/ml, ≥1 000 copies/ml and undetected (aHR=15.21, 95%CI: 2.54-91.21; aHR=42.93, 95%CI:9.64-191.20; aHR=61.35, 95%CI:13.85-271.77). Conclusions Expanding the coverage of testing, promoting early detection and treatment, strengthening regular follow-up and the test of HIV-infected patients, grasping the progress of the disease to provide accurate management and treatment are important for reducing the disease mortality rate and prolonging the survival time of HIV-infected patients. |
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