| 廖心怡,周宇畅,刘江美,刘韫宁,周脉耕.1990-2021年中国居民恶性肿瘤过早死亡对期望寿命的影响[J].中华流行病学杂志,2025,46(1):87-94 |
| 1990-2021年中国居民恶性肿瘤过早死亡对期望寿命的影响 |
| Impact of premature deaths from malignant tumors on life expectancy among Chinese residents, 1990-2021 |
| 收稿日期:2024-06-26 出版日期:2025-01-11 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240626-00377 |
| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 过早死亡 期望寿命 去死因期望寿命增长年 Arriaga分解 |
| 英文关键词: Malignant tumors Premature deaths Life expectancy Potential gains in life expectancy Arriaga decomposition |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析1990-2021年中国居民恶性肿瘤过早死亡情况，量化30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤死亡率变化对期望寿命的影响程度。方法 利用2021年全球疾病负担研究中国部分死因数据，估计1990-2021年中国30~69岁居民恶性肿瘤死亡率，并基于简略寿命表计算中国人群期望寿命和去死因期望寿命。采用Arriaga分解法评估30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤死亡率变化对期望寿命变化的贡献程度以及30~69岁人群去死因期望寿命增长年（PGLEs）。结果 1990-2021年中国30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤标化死亡率从1990年的154.29/10万下降至2021年的98.58/10万。30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤死亡率变化对期望寿命增长贡献为0.78岁，贡献最大的为55~59岁年龄组（0.17岁）。前10位恶性肿瘤中，正向贡献最大的前3位依次为胃癌、食管癌和肝癌，累计贡献为0.55岁，胰腺癌对总体期望寿命增长呈现负向作用。2021年30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤PGLEs为1.69岁，男性（1.97岁）高于女性（1.32岁），造成人群寿命损失前5位恶性肿瘤依次为气管、支气管和肺癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌和肝癌。与1990年相比，2021年云南和贵州等7个省（自治区、直辖市）30~69岁人群恶性肿瘤PGLEs上升，其余省（自治区、直辖市）均下降，安徽省降幅最大。结论 1990-2021年中国30~69岁居民恶性肿瘤标化死亡率下降，恶性肿瘤死亡率变化对期望寿命增长呈现正向作用，各省（自治区、直辖市）之间恶性肿瘤PGLEs变化存在差异，气管、支气管和肺癌及消化道恶性肿瘤的过早死亡仍需关注。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze premature deaths from malignant tumors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021, and to quantify the extent to which changes in premature mortality from malignant tumors affect life expectancy among people aged 30 to 69 years. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 data on selected causes of death in China, the malignant tumor mortality rate was estimated for Chinese residents aged 30-69 years from 1990 to 2021, and life expectancy and de-malignant cause-of-death life expectancy were calculated based on the abridged life table for the Chinese population. Arriaga's decomposition method was used to assess the extent to which changes in malignant tumors mortality contributed to changes in life expectancy for people aged 30-69 years and Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) for people aged 30- 69 years. Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese people aged 30-69 years decreased from 154.29/100 000 to 98.58/100 000, and the change in the mortality rate of malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years contributed to the increase of life expectancy of about 0.78 years, and the largest contribution was made by the age group aged 55-59 years, which was about 0.17 years. Among the top 10 malignant tumors, the largest "positive contributions" are stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, and liver cancer, with a cumulative contribution of 0.55 years, while pancreatic cancer hurts the increase of overall life expectancy. The PGLEs of malignant tumors for the population aged 30-69 years will be 1.69 years in 2021, which is higher for men (1.97 years) than for women (1.32 years). The top 5 malignant tumors causing loss of life expectancy in the population were tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stomach cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer, and liver cancer, in that order. Compared with 1990, in 2021, PGLEs for malignant tumors among people aged 30-69 years increased in seven provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Yunnan and Guizhou, and the rest saw a decline, with the largest decrease in Anhui Province. Conclusions The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors among Chinese residents aged 30-69 years declined from 1990 to 2021;the change in mortality rate of malignant tumors showed a positive effect on the growth of life expectancy, the change in PGLEs of malignant tumors varied among provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and premature deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and gastrointestinal malignant tumors still need to be paid attention to. |
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