| 叶子晨,汪嘉卉,陆取,薛鹏,江宇.临床预测模型构建方法与应用实践[J].中华流行病学杂志,2025,46(9):1640-1649 |
| 临床预测模型构建方法与应用实践 |
| Methods and practical applications of clinical prediction model development |
| 收稿日期:2025-04-15 出版日期:2025-09-12 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250415-00246 |
| 中文关键词: 临床预测模型 模型开发 模型验证 研究设计 性能评价 |
| 英文关键词: Clinical prediction model Model development Model validation Study design Performance evaluation |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（3332024188） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 临床预测模型是一种通过纳入多个变量以预测特定结局发生情况的统计学方法，旨在提高医疗决策的准确性和效率以及改善患者健康结局。但目前大多数研究中存在模型构建和报告不规范、可信度欠佳等问题，导致临床应用受限。本研究系统梳理BMJ等相关文献，并结合实际研究经验，整理出临床预测模型的构建步骤，并深入对比了构建过程中常用的方法，提出系统的指导框架，帮助该领域的研究者更好地理解和掌握临床预测模型的核心概念与实践技巧，以及提升研究者在临床预测模型开发、验证和应用中的专业能力。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Clinical prediction models are statistical tools that incorporate multiple variables to predict the likelihood of specific outcomes, by which the accuracy and efficiency of medical decision-making can be facilitated and patient health outcomes can be improved. However, many current studies face problems, such as model construction and reporting irregularities, as well as questionable reliability, which limit their clinical application of clinical prediction model. Therefore, this study systematically reviews relevant literatures, including publications from journals like BMJ, and outline the steps involved in constructing clinical prediction models based on practical research experience. It also provides an in-depth comparison of commonly used methods during the construction process and proposes a comprehensive guiding framework to help researchers in the field to better understand and master the core concepts and practical skills of clinical prediction models for the purpose of improving their professional capabilities in the development, validation, and application of clinical prediction models. |
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