| 邓佩佩,王婷婷,屈佰莉,刘雨阳,秦家碧.2019-2023年湖南省百日咳疫情流行特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2026,47(2):244-250 |
| 2019-2023年湖南省百日咳疫情流行特征分析 |
| Analysis of epidemiological characteristics of pertussis in Hunan Province, 2019-2023 |
| 收稿日期:2025-07-23 出版日期:2026-02-13 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250723-00518 |
| 中文关键词: 百日咳 流行特征 空间自相关分析 传播动力学模型 实时再生数 |
| 英文关键词: Pertussis Epidemiological characteristics Spatial autocorrelation analysis Model of transmission dynamics Real-time reproduction number |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（82473644） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2019-2023年湖南省百日咳疫情的流行特征，为制定百日咳防控策略提供参考依据。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测信息系统，采用描述性流行病学方法分析百日咳病例的三间分布特征，构建易感-暴露-无症状感染-感染-康复（SEAIR）模型拟合实际病例数据，并计算实时再生数（Rt）评估疫情传播风险。应用WPS 2025软件进行数据整理及可视化，应用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行空间自相关分析，应用Berkeley Madonna 10.6.1软件进行SEAIR模型拟合。结果 2019-2023年湖南省百日咳病例报告发病数总体呈先降后升的趋势（趋势χ2=483.82，P<0.001），报告发病13 567例，报告发病率为4.101/10万。2023年报告发病率最高（8.264/10万），报告发病高峰主要集中在每年5-9月，病例以0~9岁年龄组（94.97%，12 885/13 567）为主，散居儿童、学生和幼托机构儿童分别占65.61%（8 902/13 567）、17.28%（2 344/13 567）和15.71%（2 131/13 567），但报告发病率的性别差异无统计学意义（P=0.782）。累计报告发病率位居前3位的是湘西土家族苗族自治州（1.394/10万）、娄底市（0.569/10万）、湘潭市（0.498/10万）。全局自相关分析结果显示，2019年和2021-2023年病例存在空间聚集性。局部自相关分析结果显示，各年份均存在高-高聚集区，2021-2023年主要集中在湘西土家族苗族自治州。SEAIR模型拟合效果良好（2019-2023年平均R2=0.908），2023年拟合优度最高（R²=0.973），2019-2023年平均Rt=1.129，日均Rt最低值和最高值的年份分别为2020年（Rt=0.919）和2023年（Rt=1.278）。结论 2019-2023年湖南省百日咳疫情呈先降后升的趋势，存在明显季节性（5-9月高发）、人群特异性（0~9岁低年龄组和散居儿童为主）、地区聚集性（湘西土家族苗族自治州）。建议持续落实国家百日咳疫苗接种程序，针对重点聚集区和重点场所，在高发季节加强病例筛查、健康教育和环境消毒，减少百日咳对人群健康的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Hunan Province from 2019 to 2023 and provide a reference basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for pertussis. Methods The data were derived from the Infectious Disease Surveillance Information System of the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the three-dimensional distribution characteristics of pertussis cases. The susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic infected-infected-recovered (SEAIR) model was constructed to fit the actual case data, and the real-time reproduction number (Rt) was calculated to assess the risk of epidemic transmission. Data organization and visualization were carried out using WPS 2025 software, spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted using ArcGIS 10.2 software, and SEAIR model fitting was performed using Berkeley Madonna 10.6.1 software. Results From 2019 to 2023, the number of reported pertussis cases in Hunan Province generally showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing (trend χ2=483.82,P<0.001), with 13 567 reported cases and a reported incidence rate of 4.101 per 100 000. The reported incidence rate ranked highest in 2023 (8.264 per 100 000). The reported peak incidence period occurred mainly between May and September each year. The cases are mainly in the 0-9 age group (94.97%,12 885/13 567), with scattered children, students, and children in kindergartens and nurseries accounting for 65.61%(8 902/13 567), 17.28% (2 344/13 567), and 15.71% (2 131/13 567), respectively. Moreover, there was no statistically significant gender difference in the reported incidence rate (P=0.782). The top three reported incidence rates were Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (1.394 per 100 000), Loudi City (0.569 per 100 000), and Xiangtan City (0.498 per 100 000). Global autocorrelation analysis shows that the cases in 2019 and 2021-2023 have spatial clustering. Local autocorrelation analysis shows that high-high clustering areas existed in each year, with concentrations mainly in the Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture from 2021 to 2023. The SEAIR model shows a good fit (2019-2023 average R2=0.908), with the highest goodness-of-fit in 2023 (R²= 0.973). The average Rt was 1.129 across 2019-2023, while the years with the lowest and highest daily Rt values were 2020 (Rt=0.919) and 2023 (Rt=1.278), respectively. Conclusions From 2019 to 2023, the pertussis epidemic in Hunan Province showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with obvious seasonality (high incidence from May to September), population specificity (mainly in the low age group of 0-9 years old and scattered children), and regional clustering (Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture). It is recommended that the national pertussis vaccination program be continuously implemented. For key gathering areas and other key locations, case screening, health education, and environmental disinfection should be strengthened during the high-incidence season to reduce the impact of pertussis on the population's health. |
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