| 赵汗青,王周超,王博,雷露,于伟,毛玲玲,孙英伟.2009-2024年辽宁省手足口病流行特征、空间自相关分析及病原谱变化[J].中华流行病学杂志,2026,47(3):449-457 |
| 2009-2024年辽宁省手足口病流行特征、空间自相关分析及病原谱变化 |
| Epidemiological characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and pathogen spectrum of hand,foot and mouth disease in Liaoning Province, 2009-2024 |
| 收稿日期:2025-08-05 出版日期:2026-03-19 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250805-00554 |
| 中文关键词: 手足口病|流行特征|病原谱|空间自相关分析 |
| 英文关键词: Hand,foot and mouth disease|Epidemiological characteristics|Pathogen spectrum|Spatial autocorrelation analysis |
| 基金项目: |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 908 |
| 全文下载次数: 137 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2009-2024年辽宁省手足口病的流行特征及病原谱变化，为制定区域防控策略提供科学依据。方法 利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统中相关模块数据、传染病监测信息系统和辽宁省手足口病网络实验室的病原学数据，采用R Studio软件对相关数据进行统计描述和空间自相关分析，利用ArcGIS 10.8软件绘制聚类图。结果 2009-2024年辽宁省累计报告手足口病病例362 334例，平均发病率为52.31/10万；重症病例1 750例，死亡30例。发病趋势呈现2009-2019年波动下降、2021-2024年波动回升特征，2023年发病率显著回弹。时间分布上，2009-2023年呈单峰模式，2024年出现双峰分布。地区分布高度集中在大连、沈阳及鞍山等市；2009-2024年除2015年外，其余年份辽宁省手足口病均存在正向全局空间相关性：高-高聚类区较多且主要位于大连市甘井子区、金州区等7个县区，低-低聚类区相对较少，主要位于锦州市及阜新市，高-低、低-高聚类区罕见；人群以≤5岁儿童为主，3岁组高发，男女性别比为1.49∶1。病原谱显示，肠道病毒A组71型（EV-A71）从2009-2011年的优势病原，逐步降至2018年后的极低水平，而其他肠道病毒成为主导病原。结论 辽宁省手足口病流行呈阶段性、区域性及人群聚集性特征，病原谱从EV-A71主导转向其他肠道病毒，需加强多病原监测与托幼机构精准防控，以应对疫情波动风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and pathogen spectrum changes of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2024, and provide evidence for the development of prevention and control strategies. Methods The data from Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, Infectious Disease Surveillance Information System, and the etiological data from the Liaoning HFMD laboratory network were used for statistical description and spatial autocorrelation analysis by using software R Studio. Cluster maps were generated by using software ArcGIS 10.8. Results A total of 362 334 HFMD cases, including 1 750 severe cases and 30 deaths, were reported in Liaoning from 2009 to 2024, the average annual incidence rate was 52.31/100 000. The incidence trend showed a decline trend from 2009 to 2019 and an increase trend in from 2021 to 2024, with a significant increase in 2023. Temporally, one annual incidence peak was observed from 2009 to 2023, while two annual incidence peaks were firstly observed in 2024. Geographically, the cases were highly distributed in Dalian, Shenyang and Anshan. Local autocorrelation analysis revealed more "high-high" clustering areas mainly in 7 districts/counties of Dalian, including Ganjingzi and Jinzhou, and less "low-low" clustering areas mainly in Jinzhou and Fuxin, but "high-low" or "low-high" clustering areas were rare. The cases were mainly children aged ≤5 years, with those aged 3 years being most affected, and the male to female ratio of the cases was 1.49∶1. The pathogen spectrum analysis showed that enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) was the predominant pathogen from 2009 to 2011, but the predominance gradually became weaker and declined to an extremely low level after 2018. Since 2018 other enteroviruses had become predominant. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in Liaoning showed time, area and population clustering characteristics, with the predominant pathogen shifting from EV-A71 to other enteroviruses. It is necessary to strengthen multi-pathogen surveillance and precision prevention and control in child care settings to address the risk of HFMD epidemic. |
|
查看全文
Html全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
