| 王依,马瑞华,金玉青,王梦瑶,闫丽娜.2014-2022年河北省常住居民心肌梗死死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列效应研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2026,47(3):508-514 |
| 2014-2022年河北省常住居民心肌梗死死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列效应研究 |
| Mortality trend of myocardial infarction and its age-period-cohort effects in permanent residents in Hebei Province, 2014-2022 |
| 收稿日期:2025-06-13 出版日期:2026-03-19 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250613-00396 |
| 中文关键词: 心肌梗死|Joinpoint回归分析|趋势分析|死亡率 |
| 英文关键词: Myocardial infarction|Joinpoint regression analysis|Trend analysis|Mortality rate |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2014-2022年河北省常住居民心肌梗死死亡情况及其变化趋势，为制定预防心肌梗死相关政策提供参考。方法 通过河北省CDC死因监测数据库收集的2014-2022年53.12万例心肌梗死死因数据，采用Excel 2019和Joinpoint 5.3.0软件，计算心肌梗死粗死亡率，并以第七次全国人口普查数据为标准人口，计算年龄标化死亡率，采用年变化百分比和平均年变化百分比（AAPC）描述趋势变化。采用年龄-时期-队列模型评估死亡率变化中的年龄、时期及队列特异性。结果 2014-2022年河北省常住居民心肌梗死粗死亡率为79.15/10万，标化死亡率为86.22/10万。2014-2022年河北省常住居民总人群、男性、女性心肌梗死粗死亡率均呈上升趋势（AAPC=13.28%、13.19%、13.61%，均P<0.001），心肌梗死标化死亡率同样均呈上升趋势（AAPC=7.37%、11.32%、13.41%，均P<0.05）。2014-2022年河北省常住居民中0~、15~64岁年龄组心肌梗死死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=35.56%、9.75%，均P<0.05）。2014-2017年≥65岁年龄组心肌梗死死亡率呈上升趋势（AAPC=26.41%，P=0.011）。男性、女性和总人群在年龄效应方面，77~79岁的年龄效应系数分别是20~22岁的270.60、119.14、226.40倍；在时期效应方面，2020-2022年的心肌梗死死亡风险分别是2014-2016年的1.78、1.63、1.78倍；在队列效应方面，1999-2001年出生的心肌梗死死亡风险分别是1936-1938年出生的375.83、183.30、298.38倍。结论 河北省常住居民心肌梗死死亡率呈上升趋势，心肌梗死防控形势不容乐观，男性死亡率普遍高于女性，应对其早发现、早治疗，进一步提升其救治水平，加强对心肌梗死的针对性措施，提升健康水平。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To understand incidence trend of myocardial infarction (MI) mortality in permanent residents in Hebei Province from 2014 to 2022, and provide references for the development of MI prevention strategies. Methods The data of 531 200 MI deaths were collected from the mortality surveillance database of Hebei Provincial CDC during 2014-2022. Excel 2019 and Joinpoint 5.3.0 were used to calculate the crude mortality rate of MI. The data from the 7th National Population Census were used as the standard, the age-standardized mortality rate of MI rates was calculated. The annual percent change and average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to describe the change trends. The age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on mortality changes. Results From 2014 to 2022, the crude mortality rate of MI was 79.15/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rate was 86.22/100 000 in permanent residents in Hebei. The crude mortality rates of MI in the total population, men, and women all showed upward trends (AAPC=13.28%, 13.19%, 13.61%, all P<0.001), and the age-standardized mortality rates of MI also showed upward trend (AAPC=7.37%, 11.32%, 13.41%, all P<0.05). In the permanent residents, the mortality rates of MI in age groups 0-14 and 15-64 years showed upward trends in Hebei from 2014 to 2022 (AAPC=35.56%, 9.75%, both P<0.05). During 2014-2017, the MI mortality rate in age group ≥65 years showed an upward trend (AAPC=26.41%, P=0.011). In terms of age effect, the age effect coefficients were 270.60, 119.14, and 226.40 times higher in age group 77-79 years than in age group 20-22 years in men, women and total population, respectively. In terms of period effect, the MI death risk were 1.78, 1.63, and 1.78 times higher during 2020-2022 than those during 2014-2016 in men, women and total population respectively. In terms of cohort effect, the MI death risk were 375.83, 183.30, and 298.38 times higher in those born during 1999-2001 than in those born during 1936-1938 in men, women and total population respectively. Conclusions The MI mortality rate in permanent residents in Hebei showed an upward trend, indicating that the prevention and control of MI is still challenging. The mortality rate in men was generally higher than that in women. It is necessary to conduct early detection and treatment of MI, further improve the treatment level, take targeted measures to improve people's health. |
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