| 段江洋,窦萍,孟庆玉,仇元营,程春荣,张航,吕佳佳,梁妍.2015-2024年郑州市新报告男男性行为人群HIV感染者时空分布特征分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2026,47(3):534-541 |
| 2015-2024年郑州市新报告男男性行为人群HIV感染者时空分布特征分析 |
| Spatiotemporal distribution of newly reported HIV-infected men who have sex with men in Zhengzhou, 2015-2024 |
| 收稿日期:2025-08-19 出版日期:2026-03-19 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20250819-00595 |
| 中文关键词: 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病|男男性行为人群|时空分析|空间自相关 |
| 英文关键词: HIV/AIDS|Men who have sex with men|Spatiotemporal distribution|Spatial autocorrelation |
| 基金项目:河南省科技发展计划（202102310672，232102310258）；河南疾控科技攻关专项计划项目（HNCDCZD20250206） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 分析2015-2024年河南省郑州市新报告男男性行为人群HIV感染者（MSM感染者）的空间聚集特征及时空变化趋势，为制定MSM艾滋病区域化防治策略提供依据。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统2015-2024年郑州市新报告MSM感染者数据，应用Joinpoint 5.4.0软件分析新报告MSM感染者数的变化趋势，应用GeoDa 1.20软件进行空间自相关分析，进行局部空间自相关（LISA）分析，计算局部Moran's I指数和LISA时间路径分析的相对长度和弯曲度。应用SaTScan 10.2.5软件进行时空扫描分析，应用ArcMap10.8软件对分析结果进行可视化。结果 2015-2024年郑州市新报告MSM感染者5 103例，其中，54.44%（2 778/5 103）为郑州市现住址。郑州市新报告MSM感染者数的变化趋势不明显；在街道（乡、镇）空间尺度上，2015-2024年郑州市新报告MSM感染者数存在空间聚集分布，高-高聚集区主要位于郑州市二七区南部、管城区南部、金水区北部和中原区东部等主城区内以及新密市、新郑市与以上区域的邻接区域，呈由主城区向周边转移和扩散的趋势，覆盖面积由2015年的113.4 km2扩大到2024年的595.67 km2。LISA分析的时间路径相对长度大于郑州市的全市平均值（相对长度>1）的街道（乡、镇）主要分布在金水区、管城区、中原区、二七区、惠济区、高新区、经开区、郑东新区等主城区及其周边区域，其新报告MSM感染者数年度变化幅度较大，局部空间结构变化更加动态；弯曲度高于全市平均值（弯曲度>14.145）的街道（乡、镇）主要分布在各区（县、市）交界区域，其局部空间结构时间变动性较强，报告病例数发展过程与周边区域差异较大，呈现溢出或虹吸效应。时空扫描分析发现，2015-2019年存在1个一类聚集区（对数似然比=119.141，RR=2.09，P<0.001），以二七区的蜜蜂张街道办事处为中心，辐射半径为7.35 km。结论 2015-2024年郑州市新报告MSM感染者数存在空间聚集性，郑州市MSM的艾滋病防控应重点关注金水区、管城区、中原区、二七区、惠济区、高新区、经开区、郑东新区等主城区及周边区域，并根据局部空间结构的动态变化特征及时调整和完善艾滋病防控策略和措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the spatial clustering characteristics and spatiotemporal variation trends of newly reported HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, from 2015 to 2024, and provide evidence for the development of local AIDS prevention and control strategies in MSM. Methods The incidence data of HIV infection in MSM in Zhengzhou from 2015 to 2024 were collected from Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Software Joinpoint 5.4.0 was used to analyze the change trend of the newly reported HIV infection in MSM. Software GeoDa 1.20 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, including local indicators of spatial association (LISA) analysis, to calculate the local Moran's I index and the relative length and curvature of the LISA time path analysis. Software SaTScan 10.2.5 was used for spatiotemporal scan analysis, and software ArcMap 10.8 was used for visualization of analysis results. Result From 2015 to 2024, a total of 5 103 HIV infection cases were reported in MSM in Zhengzhou, in whom 2 778 (54.44%) had local residence in Zhengzhou. The change trend of HIV-infections reported in MSM in Zhengzhou was not obvious. At the scale of streets (townships), the HIV infections reported in MSM in Zhengzhou showed a spatial clustering from 2015 to 2024. The high-high clustering areas were mainly in southern part of Erqi and Guancheng Districts, northern part of Jinshui District, the eastern part of Zhongyuan District, and the adjacent areas of Xinmi and Xinzheng Cities, showing a trend from the main urban areas to the surrounding areas with the affected area expanding from 113.4 km2 in 2015 to 595.67 km2 in 2024. The LISA analysis indicated that the streets (townships) with a relative length of time path greater than the average value of Zhengzhou (Γi>1) were mainly distributed in main urban areas and their surrounding areas, such as Jinshui, Guancheng, Zhongyuan, Erqi and Huiji Districts, high-tech zone, economic development zone, and Zhengdong New District. The HIV infections newly reported in MSM in these areas changed significantly year by year, and the local spatial structure was more dynamic. The streets (townships) with curvature greater than the average value of Zhengzhou (Δi>14.145) were mainly distributed in the surrounding areas of these districts where the local spatial structure changed strongly over time and the trend of HIV infections newly reported in MSM was significantly different, showing an overflow or suction effect. The spatiotemporal scan analysis found that there was one type Ⅰ clustering area from 2015 to 2019 (log likelihood ratio=119.141, RR=2.09, P<0.001), with Mifengzhang Street in Erqi District as the center and a radiation radius of 7.35 km. Conclusions From 2015 to 2024, there was a spatial clustering of newly reported HIV infection in MSM in Zhengzhou. The AIDS prevention and control in MSM in Zhengzhou should be strengthened in the main urban areas such as Jinshui, Guancheng, Zhongyuan, Erqi and Huiji Districts, high-tech zone, economic development zone, and Zhengdong New District, as well as the surrounding areas. The AIDS prevention and control strategies and measures should be improved in a timely manner according to the dynamic changes of the local spatial structure. |
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