| 中国疾病预防控制中心新型冠状病毒肺炎应急响应机制流行病学组.新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2020,41(2):145-151 |
| 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征分析 |
| The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China |
| Received:February 12, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 暴发流行 流行特征 |
| English Key Word: 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak Epidemiological characteristics |
| FundProject:国家科技重大专项基于大数据的动物源性流感流行规律和相关影响因素研究（2018ZX10201002-008-002）；国家自然科学基金“一带一路”背景下公共卫生风险防范及其模式创新研究（71934002） |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 新型冠状病毒肺炎在武汉暴发流行以来，已在全国范围内蔓延。对截至2020年2月11日中国内地报告所有病例的流行病学特征进行描述和分析。方法 选取截至2020年2月11日中国内地传染病报告信息系统中上报所有新型冠状病毒肺炎病例。分析包括：①患者特征；②病死率；③年龄分布和性别比例；④疾病传播的时空特点；⑤所有病例、湖北省以外病例和医务人员病例的流行病学曲线。结果 中国内地共报告72 314例病例，其中确诊病例44 672例（61.8%），疑似病例16 186例（22.4%），临床诊断病例10 567例（14.6%），无症状感染者889例（1.2%）。在确诊病例中，大多数年龄在30~79岁（86.6%），湖北省（74.7%），轻/中症病例为主（80.9%）。确诊病例中，死亡1 023例，粗病死率为2.3%。个案调查结果提示，疫情在2019年12月从湖北向外传播，截至2020年2月11日，全国31个省的1 386个县区受到了影响。流行曲线显示在1月23－26日达到峰值，并且观察到发病数下降趋势。截至2月11日，共有1 716名医务工作者感染，其中5人死亡，粗病死率为0.3%。结论 新型冠状病毒肺炎传播流行迅速，从首次报告病例日后30 d蔓延至31个省（区/市），疫情在1月24－26日达到首个流行峰，2月1日出现单日发病异常高值，而后逐渐下降。随着人们返回工作岗位，需积极应对可能出现的疫情反弹。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020. Methods All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included:1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis. Results A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6%) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild/mild pneumonia (80.9%). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%). Conclusions The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly. It only took 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic. |
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