| 张顺祥,徐慧文,任延荣.决策树法预测我国乙肝疫苗接种策略[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1989,10(4):193-197 |
| 决策树法预测我国乙肝疫苗接种策略 |
| Forecasting Strategies of Hepatitis B Vaccination Based on Decesion Tree Model |
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 乙型肝炎疫苗 接种策略 决策树 费用效益分析 |
| English Key Word: Hepatitis B Vaccination Strategy Decision tree Cost-benefit analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| 通过所建立的决策树模型,对我国乙肝疫苗优先接种对象及其接种方案进行了估算,并对未来各种可能情况下乙肝疫苗接种策略进行了预测。结果显示,低年龄组人群尤其是新生儿为疫苗接种优先考虑对象,且无需对孕妇进行HBsAg筛选而对其新生儿直接小量接种是优选方案。结果还提醒我们既应注重高效廉价的乙肝疫苗的研制,亦应强调疫苗的科学管理和合理使用;既应注重特异性乙肝疫苗的人群接种,也应强调乙肝防制的综合性措施。 |
| English Abstract: |
| The strategies of hepatitis B vaccination was studied based on the decision tree model. The results showed that the young, espeoialy newborn should be given the highest priority for vaccination and the best strategy to the neonate is vaccination without screening for HBsAg to their mothers.The results also showed that the population groups who can take positive benefits (BCR>1) after being vaccinated can be enlarged if decreasing the costs of the vaccination and tests for hepatitis B virus markers, and increasing the protect rates and years of vaccination.It told us that we should not only pay attention to the study for the more effective and cheaper vaccine, but manage scientifically and use resonably as well. |
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