| 魏善波,陆君安,陈纪南,卢祖洵.应用数学模型评价安全套预防衣原体感染的作用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2007,28(3):290-293 |
| 应用数学模型评价安全套预防衣原体感染的作用 |
| An assessment on the effectiveness of condom use in reducing the incidence of Chlamydia through a mathematical modelling |
| Received:August 24, 2006 Revised:August 24, 2006 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: |
| English Key Word: Sexually transmitted disease Condom use Chlamydia Mathematical model |
| FundProject:世界卫生组织西太区艾滋病项目(wP/2002/cHN/HIV/1.4) |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的应用数学模型分析娱乐场所性工作者安全套使用率与生殖道沙眼衣原体感染率的关系。方法设安全套使用率为p(%)，衣原体感染率为r(%)，如安全套使用率增加△声，则衣原』一体感染率减少△r，它们的相对变化率为常数女，据此，建立微分方程数学模型凳=一女r。结果求解“p微分方程，得出衣原体感染率与安全套使用率的函数表达式为：r(p)=r(p0)exp[-k(p-p0)]。利用武汉市“100%安全套使用项目”的监测数据，计算得出相对变化率(使用安全套对减少衣原体感染率的贡献系数)k值为4.36，即安全套使用率每增加16%，衣原体感染率减少50%；实际监测数与数学模型的理论值的平均误差仅6.2%，拟合度较高；运用该数学模型所做的预测结果表明，在安全套使用水平较低时，若提高安全套的使用率，可以较显著地减少衣原体的感染率。结论所建数学模型从定量关系上揭示了安全套使用率与衣原体感染率的负相关表达：安全套使用率每增加16%，衣原体感染率则减少50%。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To determine the relationship between the rate of condom use and incidence of Chlamydia amongst commercial sex worker， using a mathematical model. Methods Assuming thatp(%)is the rate of condom use by female sex workers，and r(%)is the incidence of Chlamydia.If the use of condom increases by delta p， then the incidence of Chlamydia in win decrease by delta r. k is the relative rate of change. Then，the mathematical model established becomesdr/do=-kr. Results The solution of the differential equation is r(p)=r(po)exp[-k(p一p0)].using the surveillance data gathered from 100%Condom Use Program in Wuhan City，the k value is calculated to be 4.36. If k indicates the cont“bution coefficient of reducing Chlamydia after condom use，when the rate of condom use increases by 16%，then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by 50%.The average difference between the actual incidence and the incidence calculated from the mathematical model is onlv 6.2%. This result demonstrates a 900d fit. The predicted result of using this mathematical model shows that at the time of lower levels of condom use.a small increment on the rate of condom use would considerablv reduce the infection rate of Chlamydia，”、din.Conclusion When k remains constant，this mathematical model reflects the qualitative relationship between the rate of condom use and the incidence of Chlamydia. |
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