河南省狂犬病病例县区层面空间分布特征与动态变化

孙建伟; 许汴利; 陈豪敏

Abstract

孙建伟,许汴利,陈豪敏.河南省狂犬病病例县区层面空间分布特征与动态变化[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2011,32(8):793-795

河南省狂犬病病例县区层面空间分布特征与动态变化

The spatial distribution and dynamics of human rabies cases at the county level in Henan province

Received:March 04, 2011

DOI：

KeyWord: 狂犬病空间分布动态变化

English Key Word: Human rabies Spatial distribution Dynamics changes

FundProject:

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Sun Jian-wei	Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450016,China
Xu Bian-li	Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450016,China	xubl@yahoo.com.cn
Chen Hao-min	Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou 450016,China

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Abstract:

目的<\b>研究狂犬病病例在河南省县区层面空间分布状态及动态变化。方法<\b>对河南省2004－2010 年狂犬病县区层面疫情数据进行收集和整理，进行Poisson 分布和负二项分布的拟合与检验，分析聚集特征及变化。结果<\b>按照α＝0.05 水平，2004、2005、2007 和2009 年狂犬病病例在县区层面服从负二项分布而不服从Poisson 分布（P＜0.001）；2008 和2010 年更倾向于服从负二项分布，但同时不排除服从Poisson 分布；2006 年两种分布均不服从。从负二项聚集性参数k值来看，狂犬病病例在县区层面的聚集程度从2004－2008 年逐年降低，2009 年有所增强，2010 年又呈现聚集性减弱倾向。聚集程度与疫情县区平均病例数呈正相关（r＝0.807，P＝0.028）。结论<\b>狂犬病病例在河南省县区层面的分布更倾向于负二项分布，具有一定程度的空间聚集性，但聚集程度有逐年下降趋势。

English Abstract:

Objective To study the spatial distribution and dynamics of human rabies cases at the county level，in Henan province to provide scientific evidence for the development of control program on rabies.Methods Data of human rabies cases at the county level from 2004 to 2010 in Henan province were analyzed by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. Data calculation was conducted manually.Results According to the level of α ＝0.05 being set，there were three different results appeared：the first was fitted negative binomial distribution in 2004，2005， 2007 and 2009；the second was prioritized negative binomial distribution，but the poisson distribution could not be excluded in 2008 and 2010；the last one was fitted neither negative binomial distribution nor poisson distribution in 2006. By the clustering parameter k，the clustering degree at county level decreased from 2004 to 2008，then ascending in 2009 but descending again in 2010. The degree of clustering showed a positive correlation with the county mean cases in the prevalent counties（r＝ 0.807，P＝0.028）.Conclusion As a whole，the distribution of human rabies at county level in Henan from 2004 to 2010 showed negative binomial distribution and presented the spatial clustering. However，the degree of clustering decreased in recent years and showed that the infection resource was possibly scattered more evenly at the county level.

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