山东省2004-2012年布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征分析

杨丽; 寇增强; 毕振旺; 张鲁燕; 郑丽; 赵仲堂

Abstract

杨丽,寇增强,毕振旺,张鲁燕,郑丽,赵仲堂.山东省2004-2012年布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2014,35(8):925-929

山东省2004-2012年布鲁氏菌病时空分布特征分析

Spatial and temporal characteristics of human brucellosis,from 2004 to 2012 in Shandong province

Received:April 07, 2014

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2014.08.011

KeyWord: 布鲁氏菌病时空分布流行病学

English Key Word: Brucellosis Spatial and temporal distribution Epidemiology

FundProject:国家科技重大专项（2012ZX10004-201-002）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Yang Li	Department Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Kou Zengqiang	Institute of Bacterial Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Bi Zhenwang	Institute of Bacterial Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Zhang Luyan	Department Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Zheng Li	Department Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
Zhao Zhongtang	Department Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China	ztzhao@sdu.edu.cn

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Abstract:

目的探索山东省布鲁氏菌病（布病）的时空分布特征。方法以2004-2012年山东省疾病报告信息系统中收集的1 802例实验室确诊布病患者为研究对象。运用空间专题制图、空间聚集性分析及时间聚集性分析，探讨其时空分布特征。结果 2004-2012年山东省布病发病率由0.038 2/10万（35例）上升至0.620 5/10万（598例），年均发病率为0.211 1/10万。集中度分布M=0.375 3，3-6月高发（56.27%，1 014/1 802）。布病发病率的全局Moran’s I指数值为0.198 901（P=0.000 120），表明布病发病率在全省范围内存在空间正相关性。2006、2007、2009-2012年山东省布病发病率为空间正相关。局部空间自相关分析（LISA）发现8个县（区）为“高高”（HH）聚集，经LISA可视化显示，山东省西南部和北部为高发区，与发病率较高地区空间分布一致。一类聚集区是以鄄城县为中心点、辐射半径为33.83 km，RR=9.78；二类聚集区是以滨州市滨城区为中心点、辐射半径为62.78 km，RR=4.99，8处HH区均在两类聚集区域内。结论 2004-2012年山东省布病发病率上升明显，3-6月为流行高峰期，各县（区）发病率水平的空间分布非完全随机性，存在空间正相关，具有明显聚集性。

English Abstract:

Objective To explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of human brucellosis in Shandong province and to provide scientific basis for the development of related regional public health strategies. Methods 1 802 diagnosed cases of human brucellosis patients were selected based on the data that was collected by Diseases Reporting Information System between year 2004 and 2012 in Shandong province．Methods on spatial thematic mapping,spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatial clustering analysis,and temporal clustering analysis were applied to describe the temporal and spatial distribution on human brucellosis cases. Results The incidence rate of human brucellosis increased from 0.038 2/100 000 (35 cases) to 0.620 5/100 000 (598 cases),with annual average incidence rate as 0.211 1/100 000 and the incidence was evidently increased. The value of M (0.375 3) showed that this disease was seasonal,with the epidemic months between March and June,accounting for 56.27% (1 014/1 802). The Global Moran's I index was 0.198 901(P=0.000 120),showing that there was a positive correlation between space and the incidence of brucellosis. The incidence rates in 2006,2007,2009 and 2012 and the space distribution appeared a positive correlation (P<0.05) in Shandong province. The local Moran's I index showed that there were 8 "High-High"(HH) clustering areas,which were proved to have statistical significance (P<0.05). Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) revealed that southwest and north districts of Shandong were highly clustered districts of brucellosis and the areas paralleled to the areas that having higher incidence rates. There were two spatial clustering areas in this study,one as the center of Juanchen with radiation radius at 33.83 km whose RR was 9.78(P<0.05) and the other was the center of Binchen with radiation radius at 62.78 km with RR as 4.99(P<0.05). All the 8 HH counties (districts) were included in the two cluster regions. Conclusion Incidence of human brucellosis showed an obvious increase in Shandong during year 2004-2012. Months with epidemics were between March and June. The incidence of brucellosis in counties (districts) was non-randomly distributed. A positive spatial correlation and the feature of clusters was noticed.

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