| 方欣玉,刘文东,艾静,鲍倡俊.江苏省2010－2017年其他感染性腹泻病时空流行特征[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2019,40(10):1269-1273 |
| 江苏省2010－2017年其他感染性腹泻病时空流行特征 |
| Spatial-temporal characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Jiangsu province, 2010-2017 |
| Received:April 18, 2019 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2019.10.018 |
| KeyWord: 其他感染性腹泻病 流行病学特征 时空聚集性 |
| English Key Word: Other infectious diarrhea Epidemiological characteristics Spatial-temporal clustering |
| FundProject:江苏省重大科技示范项目（BE2017749） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Fang Xinyu | School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210000, China
Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210000, China | | | Liu Wendong | Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210000, China | | | Ai Jing | Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210000, China | | | Bao Changjun | School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210000, China
Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210000, China | bao2000_cn@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2010－2017年江苏省其他感染性腹泻病的时空流行特征，为制定防控政策提供科学依据。方法 数据来源于中国CDC及江苏省统计局。采用描述性流行病学研究方法分析江苏省2010－2017年其他感染性腹泻病三间分布特征。采用Moran’s I值进行报告发病率的全局自相关性分析。采用Kulldorff M的时空扫描统计量分析时空聚集区。应用ArcGIS 10.0、SaTScan 9.4和Excel 2017软件进行分析。结果 2010－2017年江苏省累计报告其他感染性腹泻病126 341例，年均报告发病率为19.96/10万。病例主要集中在<5岁幼龄儿童，占报告病例总数的55.08%（69 590/126 341）。发病率呈逐年递增趋势且存在明显季节性后移现象。无锡市、苏州市、盐城市和徐州市为高发地区。全局空间自相关分析结果显示，各年份Moran’s I值在0.19～0.33之间（P<0.01）。时空聚集性分析共发现4个时空聚集区，均出现在其他感染性腹泻病高峰时段。一类聚集区出现在无锡市、常州市交汇地区（RR=7.61，LLR=2 605.80，P<0.01）。结论 2010－2017年江苏省其他感染性腹泻病流行水平呈现逐年上升的趋势，<5岁幼龄儿童是主要发病人群，苏南、苏中、苏北地区流行强度不同，高发季节的后移提示病原谱可能发生变化，需在高发地区和高发季节针对重点人群加强病原学监测。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of other infectious diarrhea (OID) in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2017, and to provide evidence for setting up prevention and control programs of the disease. Methods Data was from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Statistics Bureau of Jiangsu province. Descriptive methods were used to illustrate the epidemiological characteristics of OID from 2010 to 2017. Global autocorrelation statistics method (Moran's I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of OID, annually. Kulldorff M spatiotemporal scan statistics was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clustering of OID. ArcGIS 10.0 software, SaTScan 9.4 software and Excel 2017 software were also applied. Results A total of 126 341 OID cases were found in Jiangsu province from 2010 to 2017 with an average annual incidence as 19.96/100 000. Children under five accounted for 55.08% (69 590/126 341) of the total cases. Obvious seasonal backshift with the increasing trends of the OID was noticed. There appeared four areas with high incidence of OID in the whole province, including Wuxi, Suzhou, Yancheng and Xuzhou. OID showed positive spatial autocorrelation at the county level with higher Moran's I from 0.19 to 0.33 (P<0.01). There appeared four positive clusters, all occurred in the high incidence period of OID, including the cluster area from the intersection areas of Changzhou and Wuxi (RR=7.61, LLR=2 605.80, P<0.01), respectively. Conclusion With the increasing trends and the seasonal backshift of OID cases, pathogen surveillance programs set for those scattered children under five, in clustered regions and epidemic seasons should be strengthened. |
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