| 吕嘉春,邵小萍,郑能旺.麻疹流行过程的分形研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,1997,18(4):230-232 |
| 麻疹流行过程的分形研究 |
| A Study on Fractals in the Epidemics of Measles |
| Received:August 24, 1996 Revised:October 10, 1996 |
| DOI： |
| KeyWord: 麻诊 流行病学 分形 |
| English Key Word: Measles Epidemiology Fractal |
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| Abstract: |
| 作者介绍了分形理论的基本原理，应用广东省和福建省南平地区1951~1989年麻疹发病月报资料，进行麻疹流行过程的分形研究，证明麻疹流行不是规则周期性波动或平稳状态，其中存在着分形特征，使用疫苗前，两地的分维值分别为1.588和1.626，使用疫苗后，分维值分别增大到1.716和1.758，说明流行过程更为复杂和不规则。表明分形研究在探讨麻疹流行过程的复杂性和不规则性方面具有一定的应用价值。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Fractal is a new field of science to study the complexity and irregularity of events. The basic principles of fractal are introduced in this paper and used in the analyses of measles epidemics in Guangdong Province and Nanping district of Fujian Province,based on the monthly reported data on incidence,from 1951 to 1989. The results show that there are fractals in measles epidemics,the fractal dimensions are 1.588 and 1.626 before vaccination,and change to 1.716 and 1.758 after the vaccination respectively,indicating that the epidemics of mealses have become more complex and irregular than before. It is shown that fractal study is useful in expressing the complexity and irregularity of mealses epidemics. |
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