| 陶红兵,叶建君,苗卫军,侯双翼,熊光练,余瑶,郭石林,陈璞.活动性肺结核密切接触者发病判别模型研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2009,30(7):676-678 |
| 活动性肺结核密切接触者发病判别模型研究 |
| The incidence discriminant roodel for close contacts of active tuberculosis patients |
| Received:September 11, 2008 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2009.07.007 |
| KeyWord: 肺结核 接触者 Bayes判别模型 |
| English Key Word: Tuberculosis Contacts Bayes discriminant model |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金(30571599) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | | TA0 Hongbing | 430030,武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院 | | YE Jianjun | 湖北省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治研究所 | | MIA0 Weijun | 430030,武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院 | | HOU Shuangyi | 湖北省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治研究所 | | XIONG Guanglian | 华中科技大学同济医学院公共卫生学院 | | YU Yao | 430030,武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院 | | GUO Shilin | 430030,武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院 | | CHEN Pu | 430030,武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院 |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 建立肺结核发病判别模型, 为肺结核密切接触者早期的诊断和发现提供科学依据。方法 使用logistic逐步回归分析筛选关键影响因素, 采用逐步Bayes判别法对肺结核密切接触者发病的关键因素进行筛选并建立判别模型。结果 密切接触者未发病判别函数为：Yl=一39.83l(常数)+1.927置(患者痰涂片阳性次数)+3.528 X2(接触者文化程度)+0.309X,(接触时间)+5.893(咳嗽时回避)+2.140(居室通风)+8.706(接触者咳嗽)+30.970(接触者发热);密切接触者发病判别函数：Y2=一57.875(常数)+2.343X。(患者痰涂片阳性次数)+3.965(接触者文化程度)+0.361/(接触时间)+6.296(咳嗽时回避)+1.348 X, (居室通风)+12.984(接触者咳嗽)+36.555 xT(接触者发热)。结论 模型的建立有助于肺结核密切接触的早期诊断分析, 并进行早期的干预和治疗。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To establish a discriminant model and to provide a relatively accurate scientific basis for the early diagnosis of tuberculosis(TB)and detection of the close contacts.Methods Through logistic regression analysis, key factors were selected according to Bayes theory and key factors of TB incidence of the close contacts were screened as well as a discriminant model was established. Results The non-TB incidence discriminant function of the close contacts was described as：Yl=-39.831(constant)+ 1.927l(sputum.frequency)+ 3.528(education)+0.309(contact time)+5.893(evade)+2.140Xs(ventilation)+8.706(cough)+30.970(fever).The discriminant function of non.TB incidence of the close contacts was as： K=-57.875(constant)+2.343 XI(sputum-frequency)+3.965 X2(education)+0.36l(contact time)+6.296(evade)+1.348 X5(ventilation)+12.984(cough)+36.555(fever).Conclusion The discriminant model night beused to contribute to the early diagnosis, early intervention and timely treatment on those close contacts of tuberculosis cases. |
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