| 刘丽丽,何一宁,蔡倩莹,赵耐青,郑英杰.现实队列研究中暴露与结局的时序关系[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2018,39(6):858-861 |
| 现实队列研究中暴露与结局的时序关系 |
| Exposure-preceding-outcome regarding time sequence among cohort studies in real world |
| Received:November 23, 2017 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.06.031 |
| KeyWord: 队列研究 时序关系 易感人群 有向无环图 因果关系 |
| English Key Word: Cohort study Temporal precedence Susceptible population Directed acyclic graphs Causality |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81373065，81773490）；国家重点研发计划"生物安全关键技术研发"重点专项（2017YFC1200203）；上海市第四轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目（15GWZK0202） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Liu Lili | Department of Public Health Microbiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China | | | He Yining | Department of Public Health Microbiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China | | | Cai Qianying | Department of Public Health Microbiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China | | | Zhao Naiqing | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China | | | Zheng Yingjie | Department of Public Health Microbiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China
Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China
Key Laboratory for Health Technology Assessment, National Commission of Health and Family Planning, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032 China | yjzheng@shmu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 暴露在发生时间上先于结局，是队列研究的优点之一，因此在因果推断上优于其他观察性设计。本文应用有向无环图（Directed Acyclic Graphs，DAGs）构建了现实队列研究中易感人群的因果结构后发现：现实的队列研究以研究人群替换易感人群进行因果效应的估计，人群的暴露与结局在时序关系上可互为先后，因果效应估计的准确性受到替换人群的易感性和基线调查时结局识别和排除有效性的影响。 |
| English Abstract: |
| One of the commonly accepted merits of cohort studies (CSs) refers to the exposure precedes outcome superior to other observational designs. We use Directed Acyclic Graphs to construct a causal graph among research populations under CSs. We notice that the substitution of research population in place of a susceptible one can be used for effect estimation. Its correctness depends on the outcome-free status of the substituted population and the performance of both screening and diagnosis regarding the outcomes under study at baseline. The temporal precedence of exposure over outcome occurs theoretically, despite the opposite happens in realities. Correct effect estimate is affected by both the suitability of population substitution and the validities of outcome identification and exclusion. |
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