广州市3起本地新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征及分析

赵文恒; 马钰; 汪慧; 李科; 董航; 刘文辉; 刘媛媛; 蒋书琴; 罗雷; 杨智聪

Abstract

赵文恒,马钰,汪慧,李科,董航,刘文辉,刘媛媛,蒋书琴,罗雷,杨智聪.广州市3起本地新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征及分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(12):2088-2095

广州市3起本地新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情流行特征及分析

Epidemiological characteristics of three local epidemics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou

Received:July 28, 2021

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210728-00592

KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征本地病例

English Key Word: COVID-19 Epidemiological characteristic Local case

FundProject:广州市重点实验室基础研究计划（202102100001）；广州市医学重点学科（2021-2023-11）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhao Wenheng	School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Ma Yu	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Wang Hui	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Li Ke	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Dong Hang	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Liu Wenhui	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Liu Yuanyuan	School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou 510310, China
Jiang Shuqin	School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou 510310, China
Luo Lei	Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China	llyeyq@163.com
Yang Zhicong	School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China	yangzc@gzcdc.org.cn

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Abstract:

目的分析广州市3起本地新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的流行特征，为优化疫情防控策略和措施提供参考依据。方法资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统截至2021年6月18日广州市COVID-19本地病例数据，采用Excel 2019和SPSS 22.0软件进行数据整理和统计学分析。结果 3起本地COVID-19疫情累计报告病例726例，其中我国湖北省关联疫情366例，病例以女性（51.6%，189/366）、18~65岁（81.4%，298/366）、职业以家务/待业（32.2%，118/366）和离/退休人员（20.2%，74/366）为主，首发症状以发热（71.6%，250/349）和咳嗽（60.7%，212/349）为主；非洲国家及地区（非洲）入境关联疫情207例，以男性（69.6%，144/207）、18~40岁（72.9%，151/207）和商业服务职业（62.3%，129/207）为主，首发症状以无明显不适（55.6%，15/27）和咳嗽（37.0%，10/27）为主；Delta变异株关联疫情153例，以女性（58.8%，90/153）、≥ 41岁（64.7%，99/153）和离/退休人员（32.0%，49/153）为主，首发症状以咳嗽（32.9%，48/146）和无明显不适（28.1%，41/146）为主。我国湖北省关联疫情、非洲入境关联疫情和Delta变异株关联疫情的家庭续发率分别为11.2%、5.7%和11.5%；潜伏期M（P₂₅，P₇₅）分别为6.5（4.0，10.8）d、4.0（2.5，6.0）d和4.0（3.0，5.0）d；代间距M（P₂₅，P₇₅）分别为4.0（3.0，8.0）d、4.0（2.5，6.0）d和3.0（2.0，5.0）d。3起本地COVID-19疫情在性别、年龄、职业、首发症状、家庭续发率和潜伏期等的差异有统计学意义（均P<0.05）。病例发现途径中，我国湖北省关联疫情主要是自主就医（44.3%，162/366），非洲入境关联疫情和Delta变异株关联疫情主要是社区主动排查[58.5%（121/207）和27.5%（42/153）]和密切接触者管理[33.3%（69/207）和67.3%（103/153）]。结论广州市3起COVID-19本地疫情因感染来源、变异株类型和防控策略的不同导致流行特征在社会人口学特征、临床、传播特征及病例发现等方面存在较大差异。提示在疫情常态化防控阶段，应不断完善重点人群和常见症状监测、强化聚集性疫情排查等措施，严防疫情反弹。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of three local COVID-19 epidemics in Guangzhou and provide reference for optimizing strategies and measures of COVID-19 prevention and control. Methods The data of local COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou reported as of June 18, 2021 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Report System of China. The software Excel 2019 and SPSS 22.0 were applied for data cleaning and statistical analysis.Results A total of 726 COVID-19 cases were reported in the three local epidemics in Guangzhou. In the epidemic associated with the outbreak of COVID-19 in Hubei province, 366 cases were reported. Most cases were female (51.6%, 189/366), aged 18-65 years (81.4%, 298/366), jobless/unemployed (32.2%, 118/366) and retired persons (20.2%,74/366). The initial symptoms of most cases were fever (71.6%, 250/349) and cough (60.7%, 212/349). In the epidemic associated with the imported COVID-19 cases from Africa, 207 cases were reported. Most cases were aged 18-40 years (72.9%, 151/207), male (69.6%, 144/207), and engaged in commercial services (62.3%,129/207). The initial symptoms of most cases were no obvious discomfort (55.6%, 15/27) and cough (37.0%, 10/27). In the epidemic associated with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, 153 cases were reported, in which women accounted for 58.8% (90/153), most cases were over 41 years old (64.7%,99/153), and retired persons accounted for the highest proportion (32.0%,49/153). The initial symptoms of most cases were cough (32.9%, 48/146) and no obvious discomfort (28.1%, 41/146). The household secondary attack rates of the three local epidemics were 11.2%, 5.7% and 11.5%, respectively. The median (P₂₅, P₇₅) of incubation periods were 6.5 (4.0,10.8) d, 4.0 (2.5, 6.0) d and 4.0 (3.0,5.0) d. The serial intervals median (P₂₅, P₇₅) were 4.0 (3.0, 8.0) d, 4.0 (2.5, 6.0) d and 3.0 (2.0,5.0) d. There were significant differences in gender, age, occupation, initial symptoms, household secondary attack rate and incubation period among the three local COVID-19 epidemics (all P<0.05). In the proportion of the case finding way, passive detection in patient treatment were mainly 44.3%(162/366) in the epidemic associated with the outbreak of COVID-19 in Hubei province,but active community case screening[58.5% (121/207) and 27.5% (24/153)] and close contact management in imported case were mostly[33.3% (69/207) and 67.3% (103/153)] in the epidemic associated with the imported COVID-19 cases from Africa and with Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Conclusions Due to the different sources of infection, strain types and prevention and control strategies, the epidemiological characteristics of the three local COVID-19 epidemics in Guangzhou differed in demographics, clinical symptoms, transmission routes and case finding, which suggested that it is necessary to improve the key population and common symptom monitoring in the routine prevention and control of COVID-19 to prevent the reemerge of the epidemic.

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